Chone On

=== Chone On Crazy Diamond ===

Don Wakamatsu, again two steps ahead of us, perceiving an important thing that we did not.

Isn't it great, sez Skip, that when the shortstop and third baseman glom onto a two-bouncer and look over to 2B .... the mitt is facing them, asking for the ball.

It's fine to talk about double-play technique.  But if you're there four strides ahead of the other guy, what does technique mean, compared to extra time?  Very little.

...............

Figgins' crazy speed around the defensive infield is one of those things that creates Swagger, a sense of Contenderness.  Bounce, flip, We Bad.  You feel me?

Bill James wrote that he expected great managers and GM's to do things that he thought were wrong, but that turned out to be right later.  The managers and GM's specialize in their jobs, don't they?  Shouldn't they teach us things, and frequently?

SSI gets the very pleasant sensation that Zduriencik, Wakamatsu, and Adair are two steps ahead.  It gets this sensation frequently.

Crazy speed is lost on the 3B position.  It is not in the middle of the field.

...............

Game opened today with Ichiro pulling a Lincecum pitch down the RIGHT field line for a double.  Then Chone Figgins walks.   That's backward.

I'm not having a snit fit.  I'm just saying, walks sting when they push runners around the bases, or when they occur right before you face All-Star hitters.  Walks with first base open?!, those are like going down to the court amp'ed for 3-on-3 and then having to shoot baskets by yourself.

I wish Ichiro were enthused about hitting second.  But, of course, I'm more enthused about him hitting for my team in the first place.

.............

How many times is Ichiro going to rip a base hit, steal second... and then RISP, 0 out, first base empty, here is another one of those 100 walks.  Ugh.

  • 2B, 0 out - 1.19 runs
  • 1B and 2B, 0 out - 1.57 runs
  • Difference - only 0.38 runs added by the walk
  • Flip the two:  Figgins walks first; Ichiro with a single and SB - 2.19 runs

On these two plays, you added .62 runs just by inverting the batting order.  As baseball goes, that's a big bonus for nothing more than a lineup switch.

I'm oversimplifying, of course - you don't gain .62 runs per game by flipping the 1-2 hitters, obviously.  For illustrative purposes only.  But Figgins' walks with 1B open are going to annoy me constantly.

Ichiro, on the other hand, doesn't walk with 1B open, mostly because he doesn't walk period.  Ichiro hits with runners on.  Having a fast runner on 1B with the ball rolling around in the outfield is my idea of $22 worth.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

1

The stats indicate this isn't true.
Chone Figgins Career Men on 2nd, 3rd, or 2nd & 3rd: .289/.352/.401/.753 with 149 RBI in 537 PA
Ichiro Career Men on 2nd, 3rd, or 2nd & 3rd: .338/.484/.405/.889 with 172 RBI in 780 PA
So that's Chone with 63 points of patience and 112 points of power and Ichiro with 146 points of patience and 67 points of power. Admittedly that 146 points of patience contains 137 intentional walks, but why would pitchers suddenly stop walking Ichiro because it's Chone Figgins on 2nd instead of Yuniesky Betancourt? Regardless, judging from their career stats, it looks like it's Chone who swings a little harder and waits a little less when there are men in scoring position.

2

I wonder just how many IBB's Ichiro would get with Figgins on 2B and one or two out in a tie game.
He gets what, 15 a year now. Maybe that would go to 30 or 40.

3
Taro's picture

IBBs actually aren't that bad though. They beat the stuffing out of outs, and outs happen more than 50% of the time last I checked. :-)
IBBs are less valuable than normal BBs, but having Ichiro and Figgins both on in a tie game with Bradley at the plate isn't a bad thing at all. If batting Ichiro 2nd encourages more IBBs, I'm all for it.

4

Is that Ichiro is our big bat, and we'd rather he hit during rallies, rather than before them. :- )
Ichiro is a joy to watch with runners on and the pitcher sweating bullets.
Maybe they can move Jack Wilson to 7th, or something.

5
Taro's picture

I'm absolutely in favor of Ichiro batting 2nd.
Think of how many 1 and 3rd situations we'd have with a Figgins BB followed by an Ichiro single?

6

The XBH numbers are eerily similar for the two. And a LOT of the other difference is Chone walks while Ichiro gets INFIELD singles. Infield singles don't create 1st and 3rd. They create 1st and 2nd, (same as single/walk).
The biggest difference? Ichiro has a career .378 OBP, Chone has .363. As is, Ichiro gets an extra 20 PAs. Swap them, Chone gets the extra 20 PAs. Do you REALLY want to risk Ichiro ending up at 199 hits by costing him 20 PAs, (and significantly increasing his IBB total)? You think that is gonna keep him happy? Personally, I like happy Ichiro more. I think he's more valuable to the team.

7

I don't see this phantom edge Ichiro has in slugging ability. They almost identical in that regard.

8

I just did an experiment to attempt to determine the difference in OUTFIELD singles for Chone and Ichiro (over an equal number of PAs).
I'm going off career averages ... but what I actually ended up with was:
Chone 138.87 outfield singles per 700 PAs
Ichiro 138.38 outfield singles per 700 PAs
Pretty much the entire diff in "perception" about Ichiro and Chone is driven by the difference in PAs, (Ichiro always hits 1st and plays 158+ games -- while Chone has shifted, and also misses games), coupled with Ichiro's superhuman infield hit numbers.
Ichiro's only real edge is in HRs ... where his 10 to 5 per season edge IS significant. That's it. That's the entire delta.

9
Taro's picture

Thats a good point.
I would counter though, that Infield singles are more valuable than walks and Ichiro's performance has never suffered with runners on base.
With a runner on 2B and infield singe up the middle or the right advances the runner. With a runner on 3B any infield single that isn't perfectly placed in front of the 3B will advance the runner.
Infield singles are less valuable than normal singles, but more valuable than walks.

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