Mo' Dawg on Tyler O'Neill
Tank catching serious air in the AFL

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Moe sez,

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Just for fun, I went to the Southern League batting leaders pages at B-R.  Wanted to see how 21 year olds who hit "like" O'Neill (north of .800) fared when they made it to the bigs, seeing significant playing time, at age 22.  I only looked at 21 year olds...ignired some 20 year olds and one 19 year old.

I initially looked at 2005, picking it randomly because it wasn't too far back and might give us some decent data.  Thien I went to 2006.  Then I jumped to '12 and '13 just to make it more recent.

2005 had bunch of hitting 21'ers who played a decent amount in the bigs at 22.   Here is their OPS in the bigs at 22.

  • Jeremey Heredia  .700 (his AA game was built on BB's not blast)
  • James Loney  .901 (111 PA's)
  • Jeff Francouer  .782 ( hit .884 when called up as a 21 year old)

2006

  • Matt Kemp  .894 at 22 in the bigs.
  • Tony Abreu  .713

2012

  • Nick Franklin  .686 at 22  

2013

  • Javier Baez .551 at 22
  • Christian Yelich  .764 at 22
  • Arismendy Alcantara  .621 at 22

There are some failures in that (short) list...and some successes.  Maybe the most similar to O'Neill were Francouer, Kemp and Baez. They wre boppers of some sort who slugged .487, .528 and .535 in AA.  Tank was at .508.  

Francouer K'ed in 20% of his PA's.  Kemp was 16%, Baez 27% and Tank 22%.  Francouer had a .25 Eye, Kemp a .5, Baez a .3 and Tank a .4.

So [LO = Baez, MID = Francoeur, HI = Kemp]

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Like those comps.  :: golfclap ::  As every single person reading this site is well aware:  a top-100 "prospect" has the "possibility or likelihood of future success."  Everybody on the 'net learned that 10-20 years ago, but for some reason the lectures persist, everyplace on the internet.  LOL.  Thought at SSI we'd again kill this "just a prospect" lecture in the crib.  But as Top-100 prospects go, Tank O'Neill is moving towards the "likelihood" category over the "possible" category.  Destroying AA at age 21 is no light matter; that's the high minors and the pitching bears a resemblance to major league pitching.

We will, however, provide elbow room for LrKrBoi29 to lecture us on "small sample sizes" (sic) of 6 games, and to get on us about the worthlessness of the Arizona Fall League.  The AFL is a quasi-Top 100 Spects tournament, and O'Neill has sole leadership with 3 homers in 6 games.  That's sort of like if Mike Zunino we to the ALCS and hitt a handful of homers; sabermetrically it's not decisive, but it also ain't nothin'.  It would be an indication that Mike Zunino ain't Rob Johnson. 

Pleasantly, his third homer was to right field in a big situation.  So O'Neill relaxed into the RBI opportunity and showed his stuff.  (Also, I didn't realize that Drew Jackson was playing already.)

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Here's a kinda-sorta fun Tank scouting report from Bernie Pleskoff last week.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

1

Thanks for not calling attention to all my typos.

I will not hurry I will not hurry I will not hurry I will not hurry I will not hurry I will not hurry!

Ah....forgetaboutit.  I will likely hurry* in the future.  

*edited....Sigh

2

woulda fixed them.  Even now I only see that one on 'ignored.'  Nobody cares about typos at SSI, but still, woulda edited them fer ya if I hadn't been in a hrry that is ...

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