Do the M's Have Pitching to Spare?
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This sparkling gem, predictably from The Counselor's table, got buried in the comments:

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Good pitching has sprouted up like mushrooms from the ground for Seattle for some time now, but that may be over.  It seems like every good starting pitcher or reliever in the Mariner's system is already in the majors, except Erasmo Ramirez and Danny Hultzen.  

I think that the top three other starting pitchers  in the high  minors are Tyler Olson, Jordan Pries and James Gilheeny, and they all have mountains to overcome.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but it isn't time to hand the ball to any of those guys. 

The idea of trading any pitching hurts mightily.  Especially 'Kuma.

"You will build a house but not live in it, you will plant a vineyard, but not even begin to enjoy its fruit" Deuteronomy 28:30.  Last I checked, this was a curse to be avoided. Here, the Mariners have built a mighty house of piching, and now it is time to live in it.

Consider the cons of trading the Kuma:

  • The Mariners rescued Iwakuma from the Rakuten prison, where he was serving a sentence of 10,000 innings, or death of his right arm, whichever came first.
  • Iwakuma is a family man who likes Seattle and wants to stay there.
  • He makes the Orcs his personal dorei
  • If anyone was going to sign a team friendly extension, it would be Iwakuma.
  • He was supposed to be toast four years ago;  Iwakuma is toast in the same way that Jered Weaver is toast.  There is toast on paper, and toast in the American League.  The two are very different.

 

Consider the cost of trading Walker:

  • No more Walker, Texas Ranger jokes from Spectator.  
  • Free agent in 2020 or 2021
  • There are two types of number 5 pitchers.  There are youngsters with upside who are breaking into the league, and there are old fringe guys getting a few more years in the bigs.  Sometimes, the old fringe guys are good, like Chris Young, mostly they are not.  If you trade your promising youngster,  lets call him Doug Fister, and try to replace his production with an old fringe guy, this rarely works.
  • "His heart and soul are with the Mariners"
  • Boy of destiny

More rhetoric from the no trading pitchers party (NTPP).

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Dr. D sez,

1) This should have been on the front page for the Joe Saunders bullet point alone.  The whole thing is an outrage.

2) It hadn't really hit me that Taijuan had proposed marriage to us on the Jumbotron.  He did, though.

3) It hadn't really hit me, how much I prefer smokin' hot young developmental Star-Scrubs (Stubs?) (Scars?) to Randy Wolf.  How far we've come from the days of Silva, Batista, and Washburn at $10M each.

4) I tend to lose track of the fact that Taijuan is 0.5 pitches away.  From becoming something that will give Corey Kluber the comeuppance he so richly deserves.

5) It hadn't really hit me, that Iwakuma probably would give us a nice discount.  Which the Taro-nator immediately seconded.  It's great to sit at the head of the table and be the dumbest guy in the room.  Guess which AL shot-caller said that?  Hint:  not Zduriencik.  Wasn't Nolan Ryan*, either.

6) The Orcs thing is just piling on, as Mojician undoubtedly does in the courtroom after the jury's already swooning at him.  But what are "dorei," Ice/Taro?

6a) While we're on the subject, picture Hisashi-san's smile after a World Series.

7) No Mas

......

That said, Mojician's claim as to "that's all you get!" with the Mariners' current rotation and trrrrip-le bullpen, that's kind of like claiming "that's all you get!" about Marshawn Lynch's taste for collisions.

But we take The Counselor's point.  Around 1974, the LA Dodgers had like eight recent All-Star pitchers and had like eight more coming.  That second wave doesn't exist here.

......

That that said, the sidebar link to the Times doesn't link Geoffy any more.  Get that straight.  Geoffy now writes one article every ten days and spends the rest of the time sitting on his desk nodding sagely at editors.  (I doubt you want the admins to prioritize my sidebar capabilities ... they're workin' a whole new thang, by the way.)  

That's why the Times has the true-but-not-accurate claim that the M's have only 7 starters on the 40-man roster, two of which are Erasmo Ramirez and somebody way worse than Erasmo Ramirez.  "And that's it."  The M's may need to add 2 SP's to what they got (like real McCarthy-type SP's, we presume he means).

We're not trying to bust Ryan's chops but hey now.

  • Danny Hultzen is going to make it 6x impact SP's
  • What are you supposed to do with 6x impact SP's
  • Tom Wilhelmsen looks like, and is, the very definition of a power right hand starting pitcher
  • Joe Bullpen would prevent a few guys from going stale, such as Alias Smith and Leone
  • Erasmo Ramirez counts (BaseballHQ quote:  once a player shows a skill, he owns it)
  • You have the three Randy Wolfs, Chris Youngs, and Jeremy Bonderman retreads who'll come to camp
  • For that matter, Chris Young his ownself may come to camp
  • 12 months on, there is the "free agent market" (you do have an external pipeline, kiddies)
  • Let's not count 15 minor league draws at the deck to be absolutely worthless
  • If you did have to deploy a melancholy #5 starter, let's not make that the end of civilization (cf. 25 other ML rosters)
  • Felix is worth two starters

We don't say that anybody's pitching is a guarantee.  But in a disaster scenario it's not like Tom Wilhelmsen can't go five innings, bumpkito.

Love, love love that Boeing expression "true but not accurate."  The M's could trade pitching.  But they prolly shouldn't trade Iwakuma or Taijuan, or Paxton or Felix :- )

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Gordon sez,

Even if you like our kids, you can't play them all.  Find an 8-for-1 blockbuster somewhere.

Enjoy,

Jeff

 

 

Comments

1
Hit and Run's picture

Remember how exciting it was to contemplate the prospect of the big four all in the same rotation with Felix? Walker, Paxton, Hultzen AND Maurer? When Maurer was the first to advance to the Majors, much was made about his lack of an out pitch against lefties. That was before Maurer's new change up and before this article:
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/10/10/6953829/the-transformation-of-b....
"Brandon Maurer's K rate against left handed batters was pretty wild. Anyway, in looking at all of these numbers, one thing that strikes me as particularly impressive is the success that Maurer (as a reliever) had with his changeup. He didn't throw this pitch super often (only ~10% of the time), but it was very effective. In fact, according to PITCHf/x, the changeup thrown by the reliever-version of Brandon Maurer was the most valuable pitch (in terms of runs above average per 100 pitches) thrown by any Seattle Mariner last year. Of the ~70 MLB relievers in 2014 who threw at least 30 innings and regularly utilized a changeup (≤10% of the time), Maurer's ranked as the BEST changeup in baseball."
Why consider Wilhelmsen without re-considering Maurer? Just tell Maurer to pitch as a starter just the way he does in the bullpen. All out till his arm is tired and the skipper takes him out. Seems I read somewhere that other starter turned reliever turned starter found success that way.

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Hit and Run's picture

Edited

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Hit and Run's picture

Note to self: "Only hit the save button once." Apologies Dr, D. Please don't ban me!

4

Wilhelmsen and Maurer have some of the best stuff on the team - and we're using them in fairly innocuous (some might even say trivial and banal) situations.
 
Was any 97 MPH arm used in lower-leverage situations than Wilhelmsen?  Like watching someone use a bazooka to swat a fly.
 
Do I think we should bring one of Mauruer/Wilhelmsen out of the pen, Chris-Sale him into being a TOR arm?  I think we should look into it.  It's not like we don't have relievers coming out our ears:
 
Rodney, Lord Farquhar, Medina, Furbush, Leone and Carson Smith (who didn't give up a run in his 8.1 IP in 2014) are all back in the pen next year barring trades. 
 
We're gonna add a lefty or two (already added one for the mixer in Olmos who's a fix away from being the next Matt Thornton, ChiSox version).
 
Matt Brazis is the next Leone, and he demolished High Desert and Jackson.  Mayckol Guaipe was always big and sloppy, but this year he got big and dangerous - like Medina with half the walks. Oliver Garcia is a name you probably don't know, but the Ms took a raw arm from the Dominican and have spent the last two years teaching him how to pitch. At 11K/9 in High Desert, I'd say they're succeeding. Pagan is probably a year away, as is Grady Wood, and there are a host of lower-level arms on the rise as well in bullpen roles.
 
Where you gonna put those guys?  I would trust Brazis and Wood NOW in the bigs in the "Don't get in without us having a 4 run lead" Wilhelmsen role, or in long relief.
 
I like having firemen who can extinguish rallies before we get to our (shaky-feeling) closer.  It's what worked for our pen in the Rhodes/Nellie/Sasaki era.  But how many firemen do you need, if some of them could be #2-3 starters?
 
I would rather make Maurer a starter again, now that he has his groove down, but we have 3 more years of club controm on Wilhelmsen.  It ain't like we're trying a one-year experiment there and letting someone else reap the rewards.
 
My guess is that the Ms don't really want the baby rotation out there - Paxton, Walker, Elias and Maurer, none of whom have more than a season under their belts in the bigs.  Guys like Young and Wolfe feel safer.  
 
Safer isn't necessarily better, though, and if we have to trade one it would be nice to slot in another arm of similar caliber from within.  If Tom and Brandon don't want to start, I wouldn't make em - but if they want to give it another go I'd be behind that, certainly.
 
Keep your best players, use them in the best positions for them, and trade the rest.  If the bullpen is where they belong then fine, but you might as well dump Rodney then and let Maurer or Farquhar lock down the back end. We could use that money for something if we're not gonna use the howitzer arms as starters.

5

Rodney is a natural for Boston, with us relieving them of a bat and its cost.  We've got arms to wrap up games. 

6

Because he's out of options.
I'd feel pretty okay about him as the 7th starter sort of thing, but you certainly don't want to give him a 25 man roster spot to start the season and at that point you can't stash him AAA anymore. He's going to get traded for a bit more than a bag of balls near the end of spring training and I really don't see any way around that.
it's too bad, he was fun to watch when he was good. But he's been pretty bad for a while now. 2012 keeps getting further away. It's hard to shake the feeling that he got hurt at some point and just pitched through it. To his detriment.
*sigh* I'll be rooting for him wherever he ends up next.

7

Felix and Kuma: wonderful.
Walker and Paxton: not only untested over a full season, but with injury backgrounds.
Elias: ended last season hurt.
Hultzen: innings-limited this year, probably in Tacoma until mid-year.
Erasmo: great in winter ball, but...
Bullpen-arms-to-starters:  Do we really want to conduct these experiments in-season in a 'go for it' year?  
 
There is a need for two people capable of being #4/#5 arms.  People with some experience.  To think otherwise ignores the reality of major league pitching, does it not?
 
 

11

Due to that motion he deploys when truly effective (read: dominating) out of the pen.
And we might wind up stashing both Wilhelmsen and Maurer in the pen to start the year, simply because Erasmo IS out of options as stated below and the Ms are almost certainly likely to want at least one vet in the rotation after Felix/Kuma (assuming Kuma is still here in April).
I do wonder sometimes about this vet presence thing being needed in the 4-5 spots.  Randy Wolf was "capable" of being a #4-to-5 starter - but he wasn't in 2014.  He got rocked by AAA, let alone the bigs.
 
Chris Young, OTOH, was as good as we could have possibly hoped.  Give him a year with a vesting option based on IP?  We already know he and the Safe are a match made in heaven.
 
I want the best arms, not just the most seasoned arms.  Young hotshot pitchers come out of the gate with their hair on fire all the time.  Pitching isn't like hitting - you don't need two to three years to adjust to the league if you have the ball in your hand.  Our biggest problem with running a rotation that includes Paxton, Walker, and a stretchee like Maurer is an innings limit if/when we get to September/October.  Chris Young probably doesn't help with that, given his history.
 
But I'm sure we can work around it, with or without an added #4 starter.  I definitely expect to add one, though.  Question is: which of our starters gets booted out of the rotation to make that happen? Elias is our least-talented starter, and he might be a #3 on several teams .*cough*D-Backs*cough*
 
Heck, he could be a #3 on OUR team with the right year - the kid has talent and guts, which is a nice combo.
 
The vet we pay 8 million bucks for had better have the same combo, and better results.
 
~G

12

If you're switching Maurer/Wilhelmsen back to the rotation there's those low leverage innings from the pen to that someone has to cover.
He's an enigma to me too. Went from "throws too many strikes" (when ahead) with very good control to "a lot of horse (expletive) pitches on 0-2" with worse control. The turning point on his loss of the location that seemed to set him apart early on might have been forearm tendinitis in April of 13, but nagging minor injuries have plagued him at least a couple years now. If he looks good in spring he has a decent shot of being a good #4/5 to start the year. He is looking good in winter ball so far with 18 innings, 9H, 3BB and 14K. Hopefully he is not just getting away with 0-2 hanging sliders again. Not funny? I like him and think he still can have a shot here. He doesn't have to be traded now just because he's out of options and may not make the team. That can be done at the end of spring, he seems worth keeping until then if he isn't required for a trade package.
I would rather not see any of the top 4 starters traded either but if the budget allowed bringing in 2-3 bats, a Chris Young and a midtier starter maybe Walker could go in the right situation. It's hard to define what precisely that would be but I don't see a 1 for 1 that makes sense. I think it would take Walker ++ in a trade that fills 2 other holes (1 year bat + longer term) and provides depth elsewhere for down the road.
Maybe Cruz and Tomas would be the best way to go though.

14

Being the only post-5 man rotation to never miss a turn, IIRC?   We emphasized that.  Nah, I'm not "ignoring reality" by pointing out Tom Wilhelmsen as a stoploss.  I seem to be a "reality ignorer" since the environment discussion :- )
.......
Two big stars, followed by a talented grab bag at the back of the rotation, is what most teams would love to have.  
The M's rotation for March *is* set -- Elias, Paxton, and Taijuan are in there as the 3-5.   Attrition will occur.  One, or two, or three of those pitchers will miss time during the year.
........
But, fine - which two older SP's did you have in mind and how would you work it?  Demote Taijuan for April?  I'm open to the argument.

15

Ian Kennedy is available in San Diego.  They like Saunders with gusto.  Were Kennedy a two-year guy (and were we commited to trading Saunders) this would work nicely.  In Kennedy's down years he give up taters, in his good ones he doesn't.  Safeco and he match well. 
If you've got your bats, cheap, he's a guy worth looking at. 
Minus that, I have no problem to giving The Bartender a handful of ST starts and using him as #6.  
No team is very confident about #7, BTW.  Were they, they simply wouldn't be #7.

16

Erasmo being out of options is why I'd like to see the Ms include him in a trade for Gattis/Upton and get Williams Perez back. Perez just got added to the Braves 40-man. He's a LARGE 6'1", listed at 230#, but looks, and reputedly is, closer to Victor Sanchez' 250#+.
But he's 23 and pitched well in AA with a control repertoire, sinker-slider, and had a 2.91 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in the Southern League. He reputedly pitches without fear (sounds like Elias). If the Ms needed a starter in 2015, it sounds like he's the type that could get called up for a spot start without hurting you. Put him in the Tacoma rotation (with Sanchez) and it makes the depth more manageable - 3 more options on your #6-7 starter.
Erasmo might be useful as a starter for the Braves while they build up again (they have a bunch of young pitching prospects at AA/A, but need some bridge to them). Basically you're trading Erasmo's experience and potential for 3 options on a guy with similar potential that's just a year younger. In a package it might work.

17

I think everyone agrees that we need starting depth. And that we don't currently have it. Where we may differ is how we prioritize our 'needs'.
For example, let's say that our four outstanding needs are Jack's 'two bats'...and a couple people capable of moving to the firing line when starters go down.
But my prioritization would go like this:
1) RH bat
2) Reserve starter #1
3) Reserve starter #2
4) Second RH bat
I say this is part because there's nothing out there to fill the second RH bat role who, in my mind, is a better bet than Romero or Kivlehan. Maybe Delmon Young...but I think he'll be too pricey for that spot.
The first RH bat is the one I've wanted since Cuddyer signed--Kemp. But he is not going to come here unless either Walker or Paxton exits. That's my belief. Maybe something built around Elias and Miller and a bullpen piece. But I'm doubtful. But even then, we're a starter down.
So Kemp (unlike Cruz) leaves us with a full time rotation spot...and the need for two backups. And if Kemp comes, there's not going to be much left to pay for another starter.
So to more directly answer you question, here are some thoughts:
-- Brett Anderson (he and Hultzen build strength together to start the year in Tacoma)
-- Capuano
-- Carlos Villanueva (if Erasmo stays, he fills this swing role in the bullpen)
-- Eric Stults (fills the Beimel role to start, but with 176 IP last year, fully capable of moving back into a rotation)
Some people think Jack hasn't been aggressive enough in getting his hitters. I don't. know. People still have to want to take our money.
And the pitching pieces might be the same kind of end game we played last year...and we wound up with Young. But it just as easily could have been Baker or Wolf--or Beavan.
So I'd like us to move quickly to line up these pieces. They aren't going to be so expensive as to make funding for Cruz or Kemp impossible.

18

Who at this point is my favorite remaining and it takes Walker or Paxton to get him? No way would I move Paxton, first off. Walker only makes sense to me if there's more coming back than Kemp. Another pitcher, first off. If I didn't learn from the Garcia trade not to trade an upper talent pitcher without getting a pitcher in return, Fister reminded me. Not quite the ace in either case, but both fit the idea. It's been pointed out that our high A-AAA starting depths are a little thin so if Walker had to go, something better be thickening that up in return. Depending on the package that would work I'd like depth elsewhere whether it's Van Slyke or other. I do think our farmhands could fill the outfield in a few years but next year and the year after there doesn't seem to be much hope there.
Cliff Lee is still on top of my pitching list too. Due 37 million this year and Philly would love to get off the hook for some of it. Everybody else can talk about Hamels if they prefer, I'm looking for 1 good year with a guy I could figure into a postseason rotation because Felix and Iwakuma are the only ones now without potential innings concerns and injuries are always a concern. #5-7 going into the season don't concern me as much as #3 going into the playoffs.

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