San-Man on Endy Chavez

Meanwhile, Sandy vectors Taro's interesting analysis with an argument that maybe Chavez will continue to hit:

Nice numbers, Taro...

The thing that I’m wondering about with Endy is this … could he actually be the second coming of Raul Ibanez. Ibanez was, in fact, a #4 OF until age 30. He didn’t break .800 until age 29. (No, I don’t mean this LITERALLY - but in the sense that Ibanez was a guy whose stats said he wasn’t worth giving PT to — only to become an All-Star in his 30s).

Ibanez
AGE - AB - OPS
26 — 98 - .699
27 — 227 - .734
28 — 140 - .630
29 — 279 - .847
30 — 497 - .883
31 — 608 - .799
32 — 481 - .825

Endy Chavez
AGE - AB - OPS
24 — 125 - .785
25 — 483 - .648
26 — 502 - .688
27 — 116 - .562
28 — 353 - .779
29 — 150 - .705
30 — 270 - .638
31 — 54 — .878

Endy got two full years at age 25/26, and couldn’t cut it. No argument there. He’s NEVER had the power potential that Ibanez had, (and still doesn’t). BUT, both did have similar nice looking eye ratios. Is it “possible” that Endy is a smarter player today - and that he (and Ibanez) share a common trait - that production goes up with regular playing time?

Yeah.

My eyes are telling me something different from what my slide rule is telling me.  Out there on the field, Endy Chavez has looked like Little Ichiro.   I couldn't be more impressed.

But you're talking 2,300 career AB's at a pathetic OPS+ of 77.   ....what, are we talking another Branyan situation where maybe the guy was UNDERexposed?  :- )

Sandy reminds us that some hitters do develop late, especially those who didn't get a chance, like Raauuuuul.

Huh.

This is, of course, mostly conjecture. But, Endy in 2006 and 2008 played the same number of games. But he got almost 100 more PAs in 2006, (and posted a .779 OPS). There could be some chicken and egg here — he loses playing time BECAUSE he’s struggling. But, if he can hit .295 (he hit .306 in 2006), and if he retains any of his current spike in patience, (he’s 63 patience, while 41 is his rock steady norm), and manages a 105 ISO (career number is 98), then you’re looking at a: .295/.345/.400 hitter — a .745 producer with plus-plus defense.

Is *THAT* enough to warrant continued starting status?

If Chavez can hit around 100 OPS+, give or take, then with his fit to Safeco he is a *reasonable* starting LF, no argument.   And he's unquestionably a championship #10-11 position player in that scenario, like Mark McLemore was.

Personally, I think as long as he stays in the 2-hole, he’s going to continue to benefit from a production boost where Ichiro in front and B B and the Kid behind make him ‘better’ than his ability.

Good point.

One time we counted it up and found that Ichiro's #2s were getting about 100 points of OPS when moved to the #2 behind him.  That might be a bit much...

And of course, if Ichiro DOES bequeath 50-100 points to the #2, then any other player would get it as well as Chavez --

But Endy is a nice complement at the #2.  He's left-handed, takes a big swing, stays on top of the ball, and pulls sharp grounders to the right side.  With Ichiro on first, that's beautiful.

But, too many parts of Endy’s games are off his career tracks to do anything more than guess. His ISO is down 24 points, while his patience is up 22. This “smells” like he’s approaching hitting differently than before. But things often go bonkers during hitting streaks.

But, ONCE HE SWOONS, I would agree with the assessment that the team is better served to crowbar more PT for the talent of tomorrow — and Endy is the leading candidate to surrender that PT. I’m still afraid of the potential ramifications of Wlad in left, (no real sense of how defensively committed Wlad is, yet). But, I think to keep the chemistry thing rolling, you’ve gotta juggle kittens — because you don’t want to serve up a helping of veteran entitlement, NOR do you want to send a message that the first slump you run into means you’re benched. It’s a razor thin line to walk to hold onto the current magic. Thus far, I’m liking everything I see from Wak in this regard.

I’m actually growing more confident that he’ll likely make the very types of changes that Doc is supporting - and do it in the proper time frame that limit the dangers of unintended consequences.

Right.  Wok has said he 'believes in this offense.'

But as cold as Beltre has been, Chavez has been just as hot, and those two guys cancel.  They'll combine for about a 200 OPS+, like they have now.  ... so you're left with Lopez improving -- and that takes the OPS+ from 77 to 85.

I don't say they'll finish at 85.   I'm guessing 90-95.  But it deserves its due attention..

Like San-Man says, it's nice to feel like the Mariners will make some agile adjustments as we go along here.  :- )

Gracias Sandy :- )

Comments

1
Taro's picture

Repost:
The one thing Chavez has shown so far is an increased BB rate. At the same time his O-Swing% is actually higher than career rates this year (25.7% to 22.2% career) so the BB rate is unlikely continue. Combine that with the fact that his contact% is actually also WAY DOWN from career rates at 77.6% this year. Even his ISoP is lower than career rates this year. He could be sufferring from the NL to AL conversion.
The one thing hes doing early on is hitting line drives, but then his BABIP so far has been .422. Me, I think hes partly on a hot streak, and partly dumb luck.. I think regression is coming soon, and its going to be brutal.
If you get a .275/.320/.365 year out of him, I think you take that.

3

BTW, thanks for the re-post amigo.
Typical netiquette frowns on re-posts, but in the Mariners' blog-o-sphere the threads are so data-rich, and veer off into such tangled directions, that I think duplicates help.

4

Doc...when you talked about Beltre's improvement canceling Endy's regression and that just leaving Lopez...
You forgot about five other positions in the li9ne-up currently badly underperforming:
Catching position won't continue to hit for about a 40 OPS+
More power should be expected from first base.
Gutierrez has a much improved approach at the plate this year...the numbers should improve
Griffey is walking a ton but so far...not so much with the bat.
The back-ups...Cedeno, Sweeney (pre-last-night)...aren't hitting AT ALL yet.

5
Topics about Se...'s picture

[...] PreservationNation put an intriguing blog post on San-Man on Endy ChavezHere’s a quick excerptBut things often go bonkers during hitting streaks. [...]

6
Topics about Se...'s picture

[...] jemanji added an interesting post on Seattle Sports Insider » San-Man on Endy ChavezHere’s a small excerptBut, too many parts of Endy’s games are off his career tracks to do anything more than guess. His ISO is down 24 points, while his patience is up 22. This “smells” like he’s approaching hitting differently than before. But things often … [...]

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.