Shout - OBF - 3/3/16 11:32am

<p>Are #Republican Voters Best (only) chance at avoiding a Trump nomination down to hoping for a Brokered Convention?</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 3/3/16 11:45am<br><p>Yes, in short. Cruz has no chance of winning more than a handful of delegates in any of the states in:</p>
<p>The Pacific Northwest<br />
The Northern Rockies<br />
The Nothern Plains<br />
The Upper Midwest<br />
The Mid Atlantic<br />
The Northeast US</p>
<p>And Rubio has no chance of winning more than a smattering of delegates in the central plains and deep south. The thing about that is...if Cruz got out, most of his voters would probably switch to Trump. If Rubio got out, most of his voters would probably switch to Cruz, but not all...and not enough to challenge Trump. In fact, it would probably benefit Kasich more than Cruz. But even of both Kasich and Rubio go out, Trump likely gets to 50%.</p>
<p>Rubio and Cruz both need to stay in the race and win states where they are strongest or we're stuck with Trump. And if we're stuck with Trump, there's a pretty decent chance a conservative candidate will break from the party, run in the Constitution Party, and guarantee Hillary Clinton the White House.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 3/3/16 11:53am<br><p>BTW, I think it is important to note that Trump's base of voters is 43% democrat and only 28% Republican (the rest are independent) according to Super Tuesday exit polls. Which explains why he is only winning when it is an open primary. In closed primaries, other than Nevada, where his campaign is accused of committing massive voter fraud, Trump is 0-fer. The calendar now favors closed primaries, including in many of the biggest delegate-awarding states like Florida.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - OBF - 3/3/16 1:47pm<br><p>What are the odds that Bernie runs independent and steals a bunch of votes from Hilary?</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 3/3/16 2:34pm<br><p>If we are stuck with Trump...that wall may be to keep us in...not them out lol</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 3/3/16 3:43pm<br><p>Whether Sanders challenges Clinton in the general would depend on whether Hillary is indicted after she has already secured the nomination. I think there is no other circumstance where Sanders would challenge her.</p>
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