Raleigh

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It's Actually NOT About Process

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In our latest, exciting installment of Fortune 500 For You, we axed whether anybody had second thoughts about Nelson Cruz.  NO WAY ARE YOU JOKING GET OUDDA HERE HOSER!, agreed the crowd, amicably.

If there is anything Dr. D prefers to a flu that keeps him in bed for 72 straight hours, it's waking up to all his best friends answering a question he didn't ask.  SSI did not ask whether we blamed Jack.  He asked whether we thought WE got anything wrong in the analysis.

Chicks Dig the Long Ball, dept.

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Howard Lincoln "Hey, But At Least We Hit Home Runs Now," Dept.

James found, in 1983, that teams heavy on HR power won a lot of postseason series.  He doesn't know how it's gone since then ... maybe one of you gennlemen want to count it up.  Don't count the teams that were so similar in HR capability that they muddy the water.

Have the "Home Run" teams won so far in 2013?  

In the AL, there were not serious disparities in HR ability.

  • Boston 178 homers -- over -- Tampa 165 homers
  • Detroit 176 homers -- over -- Oakland 186 homers

In the NL, there were two series in which an HR team faced a run-scoring team:

  • St. Louis 125 homers (and 783 runs) -- over -- Pittsburgh 161 homers (634 runs) 
  • Los Angeles 138 homers (and 649 runs) -- over -- Atlanta 181 homers (and 688 runs)

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The homer metric would have been 0-for-2 this year.  And, of course, James didn't call the HR factor an absolute -- it's one of 16 slider bars on the equalizer deck, but simply the biggest one.

The Dodgers overcame their HR deficit with superior pitching, right?  ... whoops ... Atlanta had a 122 ERA+.  Slap me silly.  I wished I lived in Raleigh...  the Braves were led in ERA+ by Kris Medlen, who is part of the Iwakuma-Erasmo-Medlen stylistic trio.  Maybe Erasmo will do the same for us next year... lose in the ALDS, that is.

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So, How Many Games Will Jaso Play?

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Q.  Is Jesus Montero really a catcher?

A.  We were told often, and emphatically, and for a long time, that "Montero, C" was a joke.   It is now impossible to wipe the smirks off our faces when Montero's position comes up.

We haven't shaken off the icky of that.  But if we want to analyze the Mariners' future, we'd better get it through our heads that Jesus Montero is a catcher.  The Mariners have been clear from the start, and they are even clearer now.  Miguel Olivo serves the function of team captain right now, so you hear the expected noises about Olivo being the man.  But as soon as Olivo is gone, Montero is in there.

The Mariners and Yankees never said that Montero couldn't catch.  That was folks on the internet saying that.

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Q.  How many games will Montero catch in 2012?

A.  That's up to Wedge, obviously.  He has signalled, we think, that Montero will catch about 40 games.  

If Montero is going to be a fulltime catcher, as Wedge says he is, he'd better get some time behind the plate.  It would be self-contradictory to anoint Montero the catcher of the future, and give him all this spring training time, and then --- > DH him 150 games and catch him 10.

For the M's to be at all consistent, Montero will have to catch a minimum of 30-40 games.  Preferably more like 50 or 60.  If that's their plan.

Montero's a free agent after six years.  They don't have forever.  They can't burn 2012 and just give him a year off catching.

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Q.  How many games will Olivo catch in 2012?

Taro off to 10-0 start in 2011 SSI Smackdown

And, as you can see by the points column, Taro's won-loss record has been the result of a boatload of luck.

Taro lined up Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo early enough in the draft, but his value picks have been more to the point:  SS Escobar, LF Michael Brantley, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury have given him heavy point-scorers at the bottom of his lineup.

Baker's Solution

Geoff Baker's fix for the Dustin Ackley situation is elegant, effective, and laced with quotes from the shot-caller's office.  He would have:

  • Ackley at 2B
  • Kennedy as McLemore-type super sub (1-2 days at 2b, 1 day at DH, 1B, and 3B)
  • Carp in LF first, maybe Halman later, possible deadline trade

Baker called Zduriencik like 2 seconds before he published the article.  News you can't get anywhere else, man.  

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