Hultzen's Chances = 80% (draft review 2)

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Draft review, continued

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2002:  The laughingstock Pirates took Bryan Bullington 1-1, Bullington signed for a discounted bonus, and then the next several pitchers taken were HS kids -- no other college pitcher could even argue to be a 1-1.

It's hard to say whether to dismiss Pirate picks... it was a tricky draft.  All of the first 5 picks disappointed.

Still, Bullington was a (RHP) 3-pitch guy with a great K/BB in college.  We'll include him, since he was fairly comparable then to where Hultzen is now.

For those who just joined us, Bullington injured his shoulder and, like Brad Lincoln, is pretty much a "Wish we knew what he'd been if he'd stayed healthy" result.

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2001:  Mark Prior was the 1-1.  Dewon Brazelton was also hyped, but he was hurt a lot even in high school, pitched only one season at a small college and SSI is not including him in this group of "Kicked tail and took names in big-time CWS baseball" pitchers.

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2000:  Adam Johnson the only SP taken high.... high school, as in.  No college candidates for 1-1 this year.

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1999:  Josh Beckett the only pitcher taken high.  He was a prep player.

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Well, that's about a decade's worth of drafts we've gone through... let's flip back real quick through the previous decade's drafts for a reality check ... 

1998 it was Mark Mulder ... 1997 Matt Anderson, a reliever, the only guy taken high ... 1996 Kris Benson and a reliever, Braden Looper ... now we're phasing well back before the Moneyball era.  1995 Kerry Wood, a HS pitcher, taken 1-4 ... 1994 the injured Mets' pheenom, Paul Wilson, actually taken 1-1 ... Dustin Hermanson, a very good ML starter, also taken high that draft ... 

Okay, that's plenty 'nuff.  We're ready for an executive summary.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

In the Moneyball era -- since James and the Oakland A's created the paradigm of isolating college SP's with great CTL ratios --

ML teams have little problem identifying top-of-draft college SP's who are going to be good in the majors.

About the only realistic challenge that ML teams have, with super-high draft pick SP's, is making sure that their college Big Man On Campus is not going to get injured.

Here, let's tabulate, since 1999:  

  • GOOD - Strasburg, Price, Lincecum, Scherzer, Morrow*, Verlander, Prior*, Jeff Neimann, Mulder 
  • DISAPPOINTING - Humber, Hochevar, Miller
  • INJURED - Lincoln, Bullington

It's interesting, too, that only 2 of those 14 college starters ran into serious injury problems.

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More

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Comments

1
RockiesJeff's picture

We all would wish the M's had drafted Lincecum rather than Morrow. Here the Rockies paid a higher price taking Greg Reynolds at the #2 spot in the draft. I think he was "signable" but seemed to me to be a huge reach. Add him to your list as sadly injured and bad.
One never knows but I think Hultzen has superior stuff to fellow #2 draft, Reynolds.

2

Hadn't thought about that R-Jeff but now that you remind, that had to have been it.  The Rockies had to have skipped all those mega-arms because of the dinero involved.
I had Reynolds like #10 in that draft and come to think of it, the Rockies probably did too :- )

3
RockiesJeff's picture

I can understand bottom lines and money but clubs will throw away a million or two like it is nothing on the hopes they can somehow defib a vet's career when presented with a need. I agree that such needs need to be filled as baseball over a long season exposes weaknesses over and over again. But, I would rather apply such funds, when you don't have luxury to make lots of bad calls or eat contracts, on a potential star over the hopeful retread. Thus, why go for a signable guy to save a bit but potentially miss out on a game changer?

4

Preconceptions abound.  ... it's also heresy to hire a $75,000 coach to make sure that Albert Belle's head is right, even though you've just laid out $50 mill for the player...
The first 10 picks of the amateur draft is CERTAINLY no place to pinch pennies, if you have a sense of proportion about what ML vets cost... my contention was that Strasburg was worth more like $50M than $15M, but ML teams do like their salary slotting where they can get it...

5
RockiesJeff's picture

Good point Jeff. If you are going to spend 50 mill on an Albert Belle, go at least to $80 grand for the bs (babysitting) coach. What a web we have spun!!!
 
 

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