Kotchman as a bridge player

=== Fearless Forecast Dept. ===

The word out of San Diego is that the Padres want to see what they have, in 2010, before moving Gonzalez for 1.7 years before free agency.

Supposing that you're in Capt Jack's shoes, and you've talked with the Pads about AGone, the Brew about Fielder, etc.  And the GM's just haven't been willing to deal, not in any sort of reasonable scenario.

Suppose again that you do forecast that the Pads (or whoever) are going to have a rough ride in April and May -- maybe June at the latest.  And that those teams, with 1+ years before FA, will then deal.

It would be weird, but your Grand Plan would revolve around trading for a franchise 1B -- midsummer.

...........

That being the case, Mike Carp becomes a nonissue, and you might as well get a bridge MLB(TM) player for the first few months of 2010.  SSI cheerfully concedes that Casey Kotchman's age-27 season figures to help the club more than would Mike Carp's rookie season.

The Kotchman move, to me, "represents" A-K suited in the hole:  a franchise 1B shortly to be obtained.   Between two pro players, the second player would "put Jack on the hand" of preparing himself to trade in the short term. 

Being as the two guys assume logical play from each other.

.

=== Hall Pass Dept. ===

Bill Hall definitely figured to be on the 25-man roster, as an IF/OF, so now the door's opened for another player.  Matt Tuiasosopo, maybe.

My man Earl never had anything against calling up hotshot AAA players and, says Earl, "I tell him I don't know how much he'll play.  If the kid goes 2-for-his-first-50, you're out of a job."

I dunno when the idea began, that you have to give a blue-chipper 550 AB's or you're wrecking his career.  A lot of ML stars began their careers as benchies.  When I was a kid, George Foster cooled his heels for a while with the Reds and then when he couldn't be held back any longer, stepped into the lineup and outhit all the other Reds.

..........

Could Tui hold his own in the majors already?   Probably.  His 2009 was already a lot better than his 2008 -- in 2008 he fanned every 3rd time he went to the plate, whereas in 2009, he battled pitchers to an Obi-Wan vs Anakin backpedalling draw.

As you know, I love the way Tui's swing gives him an extra two feet at the plate.  So if there's a guy who can defend himself, from a style point of view, he'd be it.

For me, Tui looked quite comfortable last September, and he did SLG .400+ in short AB's.  So it looks feasible to me.

...........

But, Tui is a football player, a bit of a late bloomer, and hasn't conquered AAA yet.  Not in the sense that a 1st-round draft pick should trash AAA before he takes on the majors.

Would prefer another year in AAA for him, but wouldn't be afraid to let him learn in the majors, as the 4th infielder and 5th OF.

My $0.02,

Dr D

Comments

1

Could Tui hold his own in the majors already?   Probably.  His 2009 was already a lot better than his 2008 -- in 2008 he fanned every 3rd time he went to the plate, whereas in 2009, he battled pitchers to an Obi-Wan vs Anakin backpedalling draw.

I'm not sure what stats you're looking at Doc - his 22 ABs in the pros where he didn't strike out in 2009?
In the minors in 2009 he did exactly what he did in the majors in 2008 - Struck out every 3 ABs. 89 Ks in 253 ABs concerns me, even though it doesn't seem to bother you.  You thinkin it was injury-related?
As for Kotchman, the ONLY reasonable explanations that I can come up with are that a) Jack believes he can get a Real First Baseman (tm) in mid-season or b) he wants a better stop-loss against Branyan's back than Carp is before he commits cash to Russell the Muscle.
I like option a best. :)
~G

2

:daps:  I'm just referring to the fact that in:
2008 - fanned 16 times in 44 AB's, had a 0.12 EYE, and looked overwhelmed
2009 - fanned 5 times in 22 AB's, had a 0.40 EYE, and looked comfortable
Short AB's of course, but scouts send in reports based on a weekend series.  Tui had 14 games in 2008 and 7 in 2009, and looked fine to me in 2009.
...................
Tui struck out way too much in the PCL in '09, no doubts there.  He did have a big August, though, with a >.600 SLG.  Still, your point is well taken that Tui kept fanning a ton in the PCL in 2009.
I agree with you that another go-round at Tacoma would be preferable.  I liked the way he battled in Safeco, though.   He looked 100% un-shrill in the batter's box.

3
okdan's picture

Suppose the main raitonale behind this move is to open up LF/DH as a place to add offense, as opposed to 1B.
What if this is a precursor to a Dunn trade?

4

I think some of the Ks at Tacoma were caused by his opening up his swing and trying to impress with his power.  But I could be wrong.

5

With Dunn playing LF?  Not following.
I grew up in the era of Greg Luzinski, but even I couldn't stomach Dunn in LF for more than a few games...

6

But I don't think that is likely...you have play Dunn every day and you have to play Parker Brothers as often as he can play and if you make him the LFer, he's going to get hurt more often.

8

I think the original comment was stretching quite a bit.
Acquiring Kotchman does one of two things if Z wanted to go that way, which he sounds like he does not in his recent interviews on the subject of Kotch.  It either frees you up to sign the risky Branyan without fear of being left with a big blank at first when his back collapses like a poorly made accordian.  Or it frees you up to pursue Johnny Damon or some other semi-capable outfieleder and ram Bradley into the DH role more often, thus lessening the pressure on Griffey (because now you don't have to spend any money staffing first base)...all of which would be contingent on the theory that you don't like Carp enough to want him starting at first.
Thing is...I was fine with starting Carp if we got a big bat for left field.  Kotchman is redundant with Carp IMHO.

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