Mariners Deep in Sell Mode
Including Beckham, Gordon, Encarnacion, Healy, many others

SonicBOOM sez,

How great to visit the site this afternoon, and find all you guys joining in and commenting like it was... 2017? And, like the M's were in a pennant race?! Now, our excitement is all about competing in 2020, or 2021.  But the good (corollary) news is, we have some milb players to get excited about. 

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ChicagoMariner sez,

So I woke up this morning, read this article (SSI IS always my first stop), checked the Ms score (sigh), and then the mariner minors twitter feed. Kelenik 2 for 5 with a double...

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Keep visiting guys!  Just as you checked in Boom, I checked out for several days.  Sorry 'bout dat.  But when we check back in here in a day or two, we'll be back to writing.  Just saying hi so you keep checking in.

I enjoy the "chat boards" under each article tremendously; it sounds funny but it's a significant part of my life.  In 40 years I've never seen the Mariners more unwatchable, have you?, but the chat boards here are as fresh as, um, 2017.  There are very real "virtual friends" that populate the site.  Because of that I'll never stop writing here, as long as I can help it.  I presumed to guess that you might be interested in that information?

So, don't forget to stop by each morning for a few seconds to check the site.  Pretty pleazy.  Meanwhile here's a wicker-basket thread, in case anyone has a miscellaneous news snip, or an opinion, he wants to post for us.

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MEANWHILE

Here's a baseball snippet:

Any idea why left-handed batters draw more walks?
Asked by: Jeff

Answered: 6/4/2019
 It's because it is tougher to pitch inside than it is to pitch outside. - James

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MIKE LEAKE

Brent Stecker has an article up on the latest rumor vapor swirling around the M's:

According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Leake starting on Wednesday wasn’t even a sure thing as MLB sources told Divish that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto had been trying to finalizing a trade as late as Tuesday night that would have sent Leake to Arizona. That obviously didn’t materialize, but with Leake’s recent performance it could end up helping the Mariners’ cause as they look for the right return for Leake in a trade.

... Leake is just one of a long list of established players the Mariners are reportedly looking to trade, according to a report last weekend by MLB Network insider Jon Heyman.

Stecker also points out Jon Heyman's tweet:

Mariners are deep in sell mode. “Trying to trade everyone,” as one rival put it. Beyond Bruce, also talking about Encarnacion, Healy, Gordon, Beckham, Leake, etc.

.....

With respect to trades of guys like Jay Bruce and Leake, Dr. D is assuming that it isn't too worthwhile to worry about what the M's are getting back?  They took Bruce on, with his $14M salary this year and next, to offset Robinson Cano's salary.  The Mets weren't going to give us Kelenic and Justin Dunn for Diaz and then eat Cano's contract also.  So, when Bruce re-established some value and could be sent out in any salary dump, that's the jackpot for Jerry Dipoto.  We're guessing at this point that Leake's situation will be similar.

What WILL be interesting will be the pitcher who replaces Leake.  Sheffield hasn't torn up the PCL but would still be fun to watch. Dunn *has* been tearing up AA.

Live long and prosper,

Jeff

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Comments

1

Life's ridiculously busy.  Love to write but don't have time.

What I do have time for is to drop by this site almost every day....Like I have been for 20+ years now.  Not always this site, but all the way back to the AOL Stats Board days and every other platform since.

Write when  you can Jeff.  It's always fresh, always unique.  Doesn't hurt that our worldviews are so closely aligned too.  

2

Imagine you are a fan of the Astros in 2012.

July 20, 2012

Traded David CarpenterJ.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received a player to be named later, Francisco CorderoBen FranciscoJoe MusgroveCarlos PerezDavid Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 21, 2012

Traded Brett Myers and cash to the Chicago White Sox. Received a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich (minors) and Blair Walters (minors). The Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski (August 3, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 24, 2012

Traded Wandy Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Colton Cain (minors), Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens.

July 29, 2012

Traded Chris Johnson to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Bobby Borchering (minors) and Marc Krauss.

August 31, 2012

Traded Ben Francisco to the Tampa Bay Rays. Received a player to be named later. The Tampa Bay Rays sent Theron Geith (minors) (September 21, 2012) to the Houston Astrosto complete the trade.

Only Joe Musgrove and Chris Devenski, 2 relief pitchers, were a part of the championship 5 years later or even really helped at all.

I looked into that because of a recent link I found in response to Astros fans in twitter making a big deal out of the "Nobody's home" play against them on the 3rd of June this year.

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/8/7/3226043/houston-astros-bad-play-oh-man...

They extended that streak of awful to 4-34, even 8-48 in 2012.  The Mariners are not even approaching that level of overall badness.  14-38 still isn't good, but it's not that bad.  They already had Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez and Keuchel at that point.  The Mariners have 5 years still to be as quick as the Astros to their first pennant. 16 years to still be faster to their first championship.  It's not as though they even made all the right moves following that trade deadline. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-release-struggling-outfielder-martinez/c...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/robbie-grossman-released-astros.html

I have a lot of faith that Dipoto does better than getting just a couple relief pitchers this summer for their first championship team. 

4

The last 3 first rounders all still seem like good prospects and are developing?  We can now.  Tacoma is soon to see players drafted in Dipoto's first year here, it doesn't happen overnight.  Who they are drafting and when has made more sense than ever especially since Hunter took on the responsibility before the 2017 draft.  The Slack channel talk during the draft this year was almost entirely positive.  These guys won't be passing on Rendon's or Tulowitzki's for future flameouts.  I'm not used to blue chip prospects putting up good numbers for long here, but it's happening now.  Everett's starting rotation has a good chance to be the best they've ever had this year.  5 International prospects from the last 3 years are very interesting and 3 of them have put up nothing but solid numbers so far.  Gas camp seems to be doing amazing things including one pitcher who added 10 MPH to his fastball in 1 offseason.  Development is happening.  For the Mariners. 

5

E2 (aka "The Parrot") now the AL HR leader. I suggest he's worth what the Mariners are paying him. We should see a "baseball trade" in the next six weeks: Some contender (Astros? Rays? Twins?) giving Mariners legit prospects, and not expecting us to pay half his salary. 

Seems like we "pulled the trigger" on Bruce just a wee bit early: Had we hung on forCutch's season-ending ACL, we could have gotten legit prospects for him. As it is, I would have made the deal that JD did: We just had too many bodies playing 1B/3B/DH, esp. when Healy's back heals. 

Time now for Beckham, Gordon, Leake, perhaps even Leblanc and Healy to light it up. They're playing now for the chance to play for a contender in August/September (/October). 

Who else would we trade, for the right opportunity? Mallex Smith? Tom Murphy? Mitch Haniger? (Although- not to be too morbid- I think he needs two functional testicles, first.) 

6

So- if we manage to trade half a dozen of our major leaguers- who do we want to see playing the last 60 games, in August and September? 

1. I'm really excited to see Jake Fraley in teal. Two more HRs today; five tools. As someone else suggested- I expect that trade (Zunino, Heredia, Plassmeyer) will be forever remembered as "The Fraley Trade". 

2. Austin Nola. Has been "on fire" for the first 1o weeks of the PCL. And he catches. 

3. Timmy Lopes. Not a SS, but an effective utility option at 2B/3B. Hitting- almost as well as Nola. 

4. Braden Bishop (once he recovers from an injury that sounds nearly as painful as Haniger's!)

5. No starters (this side of Arkansas) seem particularly impressive.  The Travs have Dunn, McCaughan, Sanchez, Moore (perfect today through five)  all performing at a high level. The Nuts have Gilbert, of course, and the poster boy for the Gas Camp (and milb K leader) LJay Newsome. 

6. Lots of relievers I'd like to see get an inning or two in September: Reggie McClain; Sam Delaplane; Art Warren, as well as McKay and Markel who are on the 40-man, already. 

Who do YOU want to see?!

7

To tell you the truth, I would love to see Fraley get a call up to the bigs.  He's killing the TL, killing it on the level of Godzillan-type destruction.  Get this, Kyle Lewis is OPS + ing .732 and that is above average for the league, a 104 wRC+ (Thank you, Prospect Insider and J. Churchill).  Fraley is at .978.

Sheeeeesh.

I suppose we need some sort of a trade to open up space for him, OK, so get him to Tacoma now and then to Seattle when that trade occurs. 

And, mea culpa, I was wrong about EE.  I thought we would continue to see a sliding skill set, that has not been the case.  He's hit 7 homers in the last 14 days and that isn't going to continue, but I didn't even see that level of hot in him. 

8

What 14th round 2013 Mariners pick Ian Miller needs to do to get noticed.  Just when I thought he'd finally get a shot, in comes Mac Williamson.  "Fresh off the couch, after 2 weeks off work..." as RR-S put it.  The fastest man in the org (AFAIK) is hitting .292/.349/.500 in the PCL with 22 doubles 2 triples 6 HR and 16-2 in steals.  His patience and power could still use work but he's a true burner.  The others I'll put a [D] to signify when they were drafted by Dipoto's crew.  All others were traded for or signed as FA (MiL or Int'l) under Dipoto.  Miller and Liberato have been around a long time though. 

Fraley could move any time to or past AAA in my book too.  Evan White [D] may be in that boat in July if he has gained something that's currently showing in his 12 game hitting streak with 4 HR.  Lewis [D] is in a similar boat to White except he's currently still striking out too much.  Dom Thompson-Williams could also put himself in that position by then.

Nola and Lobaton look to me like they make it so Murphy or Narvaez could be moved.  In fact, by wRC+ among M's farmhands Nola is 4th at 143 behind Kelenic 183, Fraley 162 and Marte 156.  Liberato was on my list at 128 but hit the IL and White is now 8th at 119.  That's the fielder list.

Justin Dunn, Ricardo Sanchez and Darren McCaughan [D] are 3 SP in AA Arkansas I'm interested in seeing up.  Relievers Sam Delaplane[D], Reggie McClain [D] and Zac Grotz are the only AA or higher guys we haven't already seen that stick out right now.  There's plenty of relief pitchers to look at though.  Logan Gilbert [D] and Jarred Kelenic going to AA by mid July and continuing to dominate there could cause me to envision them up in August or September but there's really no rush.

All of the drafted guys I noted were drafted in 2017, Scott Hunters first year here, except Lewis and McClain from Dipoto's first year with McNamara still Director of Amateur scouting.  Hunters drafts to me appear to be clearly the best in the history of the franchise and some early returns could come just 2 years later from 4 that I think could be close.  He hasn't picked higher than 14th so far but the height and depth are looking good. 

9

Just for the fun of it.

LeBlanc (.667 opp. OPS at Rangers park,.511 at Citizens Bank could be Cardinals) and Murphy to Rangers
Encarnacion to Houston or Tampa
Gordon to Mets (for the irony)
Brennan to Twins or Red Sox
Elias and Sadzeck to Nationals or Dodgers
Mallex Smith to Phillies
Leake to Cardinals (.651 OPS given at Citizens Bank)
Beckham and Santana to Colorado

10

It warms my heart to read thoughtful baseball comments here, rather than the tripe that gets served up elsewhere. You guys are good! 

Dawg, we're agreed about Fraley and Encarnacion exceeding expectations. Unfortunately, for one that should mean a spot in the T-mobile outfield sooner rather than later; in the other case, hopefully it means a place in the Rays or Astros infield. Edwin deserves to be playing well into October, adn I wish him very well- wherever he is headed. 

Wish- I hear you Scott Hunter seems to be an exceptional judge of talent (hoping they can develop it properly!) but... every new management team seems to have a bias against what they found on the shelf when they arrived. Sadly for Ian Miller- and I've had the same thought, about "What does it take?!"- he looks like a victim. I'd like to see the Mariners promote the best players... but, I also love to see 33rd-round draft picks make plays in the MLB. So- rooting for the underdog!

The one pitcher you left of your recital of teh Travs rotation is... the one pitcher who has been in the organization the longest- and, the shortest. Andrew Moore, of course. If it escaped notice, he retired the first 15 Drillers he faced last Sunday- then foundered, as he got fatigued. Once they lengthen him out, I expect we'll see him back in the M's rotation. 

11

But hasn't established a new level.  Him and Lobaton have been up and I was focusing more on prospect first chances, although I did mention Lobaton.

Reading through supposed M's fans saying the Mariners don't deserve an All-Star this year doesn't make me want to go back to those sites either.  If it were true by the numbers, sure.  But when 2 players are arguably the best on the league at their position, 1 of those is leading the league in HR and neither are in top 7 voting at their position "M's are bad" just isn't a justification.  I prefer emotional responses to have a shorter lifespan, keeps me healthier. 

12

Accordino to Baseball Prospectus there are 88 MLB catchers listed in their defensive statistics.  Omar Narvaez is listed as #79, worth an adjusted -3.6 runs this season.  His pitch framing has cost -2.3 runs, also #79 of 88.  

Tom Murphy is #23, worth an adjusted +1.2 runs and +1.0 runs in framing alone.  He’s just two positions behind Mike Zunino.

Austin Hedges has been worth 10.1 framing runs, already.  

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899587

M’s are 20-27 when Narvaez starts and 8-15 when Murphy does, even though Murphy has the better defensive numbers AND is killing both RH and LHP.  (.981 vR in 38 PA).

Murphy was 67th of 117 in runs saved/lost, with a total of -0.3 framing runs, Narvaez was 113 of 117 with -10.8.  In ‘17, Narvaez was #102 of #111.

sigh

13

What about Jeff Mathis and Tim Federowicz, the catchers in Texas where I suggested a catcher be traded to?  Doesn't look good in other defensive metrics but I don't have access to BP metrics.

In the long run there's now 6 catchers in the minors I'll be watching with interest if 11th round pick Carter Bins and 28th rounder Anthony Lepre are signed.

https://youtu.be/tzJF-vXzCGA

https://youtu.be/_kCcVxLTR9M

Lepre: “One of the greatest single-season efforts I've ever observed,” TMU coach Monte Brooks said. “I love his commitment to details and his dedication to be the best.  He has elevated the intensity of our team.”

https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-signal/20190502/281736975876469

http://www.gsacsports.org/SIDHelp/m/a%7C5454.php

Couldn't find recent video of Lepre and both Baseball Cube and Reference are missing his 2019 stats.  Nola is destroying the PCL.  221 PA at 13.1 BB%/17.2 K% .202 ISO, .335/.425/.537 .412 wOBA, 141 wRC+.  Adding to the 3 both-sides-of-the-ball catchers drafted last year in Cal Raleigh, Jake Anchia and Dean Nevarez I'm not worried about the longterm play at the position.

14

But he has some interesting value.  He had 12 MLB homers coming into this season, but has jacked 9 balls already.  I like that trend.  But what i really like is that, over the past two seasons, he's hit .294-.366-.468 vs RHP.  I like that a lot!  A whole lot. 

He played one game at 1B for the White Sox and one at 2B.  In 1/3 of a season, he's already at 1.6 oWAR with his bat. 

Narvaez could be a very interesting if used come at 1B.  The Moneyball A's did pretty well with a converted C getting on base at a 37% clip.

And his ability to C, frees up a spot for an arm. 

I am just thinking out loud and his bat is covering a bunch for his pitch framing.  He's also young enough to get way better with the glove. But if he can hit like this, being creative might make sense.

15

He has played 1b a decent amount in the minors and even 5 innings in Chicago.  The inning at 2nd this year was interesting although he made the one play.  I tried to find video... He also played a full game in LF in Rookie ball in 2011.  Him or Murphy are good choices for backup his inning with 1 chance and success was LF this year.   But then striking out 2 in his inning pitching was much more impressive. .  I'm pretty sure by 2021 when it hopefully matters more there will be someone else from the farm we'll want starting.  Trades would depend on the offer, as much as I prefer any of Narvaez, Murphy or Nola for the longterm.  Narvaez is 24, Murphy 28 and Nola 29 for whatever that's worth.  Lobaton is the 34 yo. emergency plan. 

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