M's Sweep Orcs
And Haniger goes upper tank in back-to-back games

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GAMEFLOW 1

Cindy and I went to the game Monday.  But supposing you told us at 6 pm that the A's would hit five (5) homers and their starter would Feir a lockdown game?

Only way you win that is if your pitcher actually throws well aside from the solo HR's, and you get to their pen.  Which we did.  The average homer yields 1.7 runs, so x5 that would usually be 8.5 runs; the A's scored 5 total runs for the game on their 5 homers.  How marvelous.  Yusei Kikuchi is accelerating into an easy #2 starter.  His and Marc-O's ERA are #17 and #14 in the league, Kikuchi's with a bullet.

Speaking of bullets, the GTRBI was 205 MPH down the left field line by our player do jour, Domingo.

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GAMEFLOW 2

Three more homers by the Mariners, this time off Brett Anderson who had coughed up just one previously.  Daniel Vogelbach swatted a screaming ace return-serve down the RF line; it hit a seat halfway up and caromed madly into the concourse.  I got your HR/f stat right here, brother.

Tim Beckham hit a ball 425 feet, or something, to his off field in right center.  He's hitting .476 and the last four years combined at SS, his UZR is neutral.  How many times have the M's needed a SS at the trade deadline and been unable to come up with anything?  Word is there are few bats around this year ... maybe Dipoto needs to find somebody like Washington, who has Wilmer Difo at short with a -0.2 WAR.

Haniger leaned into another upper-deck blast, Mike Leake had his A+ command (6.2 5 1 1 1 6) and ...

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ROENIS ELIAS

Fanned 5 men in 7 outs to close out a 2.1-inning save.  See his movement chart in the picture above.  Elias seems to wear the faddish "tunneling" movement in which his changeup (85-86 MPH) starts out on the same vector as his fastball (94-95 MPH).  You could see by the hitter's reactions that they were having 132 kinds of problems seeing the ball.

In 20+ innings, Elias sports an 8.9 / 3.5 / 0.4 slash, easily good enough to pitch the late innings.  And even his lifetime slash, thrown before he jelled (?), is 7.5 / 3.5 / 0.9.  But if he's going to throw the stuffing out of the ball like this, I'd sooner have him take the Scot Shields / Chris Devenski role, going 2-3 innings as needed or closing/setting up in a pinch.

If I'm going to watch the M's PLAYERS this becomes one reliever I want to see come in, along with Brandan Brennon.  Supposing that Elias maintains this performance, and the Mainframe does love his arsenal, let's see if we can make Elias an 80-, 90-IP reliever on a pennantwinner?

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MITCH HANIGER

Two nights in row into the upper deck.  WAY into the upper deck.  Has been in a bad slump the last two weeks, .191 even with the last coupla days, but is still batting .229/.318/.488 for the year.  Included in that is a .269 BABIP -- it was .335 the last two years -- and the 100 points of OBP.

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TIM BECKHAM

Been surfing around a little and the writers all complain there are no bats for the trade deadline this year.  Come to think of it, that probably means the reverse is the case ... do you remember playing roto and there was always one guy who asked about your stars and then OFFERED YOU EVERYBODY HE WAS GOING TO CUT ANYWAY?  :- )

Players not in the M's plans anyway:  Jay Bruce, Tim Beckham, Edwin Encarnacion with 12 homers, Ryon Healy, maybe Domingo.  And those are all guys with OPS+ way over 100.  There's also Mike Leake, a stoploss SP with a 1+ walk rate and a playoff disposition.  How many times have the M's needed a stoploss #4 or #5?

You could say three of them are plus regulars and three more are average regulars, or close to it.  Well, Jay Bruce isn't average, though this is one of his 30-homer years.  There's got to be a market for a few of 'em.

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DANIEL VOGELBACH

A few days ago, he and Servais said the key to his fix was to take a 40%, 50% swing.  That's true in golf, right, how an easy swing can produce line shots into the bleachers?

In less than 1/4 of a season, he's got 26 walks and the most diamond-hard strike zone you'll ever see (22% chase rate lifetime, but the stat doesn't do the eye justice).  A player with 100 walks would, and 'Bach of course has got the HR fangs to force lots of walks, that would finish top 10 in both leagues.  And 100 walks, anywhere near that, would put the kibosh on all discussion of whether he's a regular at DH. 

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ON DECK

M's defense worse than 2005 Yankees?

Brandon Brennan

Dr. D's Top 10 M's Prospects

Whatever You Bring Up

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Enjoy,

jemanji

 

Blog: 

Comments

1

In the title pic?  That's some consistent filth.

I think they'll keep 1 or 2 of Bruce, Healy, Beckham, Encarnacion, Gordon and Santana going into next year.  Maybe up to 3 going into August and eventually the offseason.  Unfortunately most of the Veterans in the pen haven't worked out so far.  There's still time to return from the injured list, ineffectiveness or even AA (Ayalavilla) and make those postseason hopefulls covetous of their pitching.  How would it be if you turned a Rule 5 pick and Ben Gamel into a Kelenic level prospect and change in under a year?  Not saying they should trade Brennan or even Santana necessarily.  But that could be a story.

We were talking about the skills with Vogelbach when he was acquired matching up to Ortiz.  Not that he was Ortiz then...Well, you know. Doesn't 'Bach look like the '30's version of Ruth when he's easily flicking balls over walls?  Even with his 50% swing(per Vog) or 40% (Servais) on back to back days since he decided to stop chasing again after a couple weeks of pressing.  Not exactly the same hitter but see for yourself:

http://baseballegg.com/2019/02/01/babe-ruth-and-lou-gehrig-take-batting-...

On the prospect front, I want to promote a nickname I ran across for J-Rod; Poseidon.  They actually listed 3 MiL OF and Zeus, Hades and Poseidon without saying which was which.  Zeus being taken around here and Poseidon being Mariner themed is enough for me.  Julio and Poseidon are both listed 3rd as well.

https://www.prospects1500.com/milb/the-greek-gods-of-young-outfield-pros...

2

I'm looking at the Pirates and I think they may be a prime candidate for trade partnering; they're cheap, hanging around fringe contention, they have excess pitching and an offense that has pretty mediocre middle infielders (Beckham - $2.5 mil), a mediocre LH prospect at 3b (Healy pre-arb), and are relying way to heavily on production from Melky Cabrera (Santana/Bruce who would require some money eating).

They could acquire some bullpen pieces or just deepen the Starting Staff a lot.  On Edwin, it's harder to say; he's looking good offensively and useable at First, but every competitive team that needs a DH seems set, and only a few NL teams look in need of a first baseman...

4

He's unusual in that both of his pitches, the FB and changeup, break armside.  He throws them 90% of the time and you'd think he needed some way to back hitters up, but his inside FB seems to be plenty.  One of these days he may get his gloveside slider rolling better.

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++ I think they'll keep 1 or 2 of Bruce, Healy, Beckham, Encarnacion, Gordon and Santana going into next year.  Maybe up to 3 going into August ++

Does that seem to anybody else like about three times the number of such 30-ish, non-future regular veterans that you usually have?  Kind of like having 6 Russell Branyans?

...

++ We were talking about the skills with Vogelbach when he was acquired matching up to Ortiz.  Not that he was Ortiz then...Well, you know. Doesn't 'Bach look like the '30's version of Ruth when he's easily flicking balls over walls?++ 

'Bach reminds me constantly of Ruth.  If I believed in reincarnation ...

...

Poseidon and the M's taking the league by storm?  I like it :- )

For those who didn't hit Wish's link, it's a fun one.  The author starts with

+When the Mariners announced their minor league rosters, I was extremely excited to see the West Virginia Power’s roster, featuring possibly the best OF duo of any minor league team in Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez.+  

Best OF in MiLB baseball?  Wow.  He also opines that Poseidon could be in Seattle next year, LOL, which would make him a possible future MVP candidate.

5

It's partially from hearing Servoto talk up veteran leadership constantly in general and specifically.  Healy and Santana are not veterans in that sense, aren't on the lengthy list of "FA after '20" and both being retained for now seems reasonable and perhaps preferable.  Roster makeup also points to 2b or Util potentially not being covered by youth just yet.   Whether Shed is your 2b right now or you're thinking Dee or Beckham there as ShRed aLong is the utility player Dipoto suggested while acquiring it seems there could be room for 2 of them next year.  Moore and recently signed Ryan court would also be among Utility options.  If there's a 26th spot added especially, Beckham or Dee make some sense to choose between for it.  I'd have Dom Santa the 1b/DH mainly version as another possibility for the added spot.  Not that they should play less than a 25th man, but that the roster spot provides some ability for splitting a McLemore's coverage between 2 roster spots.  The makeup doesn't look like such that 9 regulars should be playing 6+days a week anyway.  Having 2/3 splits between 3 players at 2 positions you wouldn't have been able to before without limiting versatility seems one good use of the 26th.  That or more versatility depth.  Offensive or defensive depends on the rest of the roster and as long as Cameron is able to help Mallex get to being the plus defensive CF it seems he should be offense would be the preference.  Although Dee can be a plus on both sides and is considered so in the clubhouse.  So Dee, Santana and Healy or Bruce (Vog credits with helping him put it together this spring) into August makes some sense.  

If I believed in reincarnation...Exactly.  But that would mean that the Cubs gave up Ruth.  Were they ready for another curse already?  How come the team that's never ever been there isn't considered cursed?  Does mismanagement tag fit current day sensibilities well enough?  It's not as though people today take more responsibility for their own actions, looking less often for outside influences to blame for their troubles.   Is it?

Elias' slider showed well on the graph twice but I don't know if it looked more than a show me pitch in the game.  Rhapsodo life seems to have removed much of the difficulty of developing a pitch though. 

6

EE has a market, a decently large one, right now.  I can't imagine that the Yankees didn't at least sniff him a bit before they bought Kendrys Morales.  And given my 'druthers, I would prefer we shop Gordon, rather than Beckham (unless Beckham is a lockerroom dink, which doesn't seem to be the case).  BTW, the Cleveland Indians have a 2B (Jason Kipnis), who is OPS'ing 53!  They just might be in need of a 2B.  The Cubs 2B, Danial Descalso,  is OPS'ing 74.  Addison Russell is young but not hitting.  Zobrist is out.  They aren't the 2B trade candidate that Cleveland is, but they might sniff at ours.  The only other club with play-off dreams and in need of a 2B is San Diego. I would shop Gordon (or maaaaaaaybe Beckham.  Nah!  Ok, maybe)  to Cleveland or SD.  Eat Gordon's salary.....and ask for a sparkly return.

I also posted about Bruce's surprising exit velocity stats.  But when Mallex Smith comes back, Bruce loses his spot, for the most part (Santana has no split concerns and Vogs is just too good to sit).  There might be a market, a small one, for Bruce......if he didn't cost somebody $14M next season.

If you trade EE soon (abandoning all WC hope), then Bruce plays 1B until Seager boots Healy over there.  But then Bruce becomes an expensive 4th OF with a terrible glove.

7

His play at 2nd to me looked like the potential to be above average there, it's just flubs piling up that we've all seen too much of this year.  His errors have been involved in giving up 10, 14 and 15 runs in games, although the over 10 run games to Texas had others pitching in errors.  Tim is still leading the league in errors although I'd agree with you yesterday's throwing error was catchable at 1b especially by White who could be there next year.

I had the same curiosity when I heard about Kendrys' acquisition.  The Yankees don't have much prospect depth currently because they've promoted the cream of what was a top 5 farm the last couple years only to watch much of it get injured early this year.  It's probable in my mind that they don't want to spend that capital right now.

It's a rare year that the top 3 farm systems have competitive major league teams.  The Padres Rays and Braves can plug whatever holes they decide to with trade acquisitions and I'd love to be their supplier in that function.  Encarnacion would not likely be high on any of their lists excepting the probability of NL adding DH next year.  There's certainly a couple DH options around here that might interest them.  That's the destinations I envision if Santana is moved for a haul, when drooling over prospect lists.  One goal this July could be to add a top 100ish infielder and pitcher to the mid minors and those farms have some options.

8

They already have Luke Voit, Greg Byrd, Kendrys Morales, Logan Morrison, and Giancarlo Stanton on the roster.  Stanton seems to be getting close to returning, but that's a lot of options to churn through DH for a team that's also pretty old anyway.  I think in light of the fact that EE has played a bunch of First Base that NL teams are actually pretty likely landing spots for him.  

10

How much I'd rely on FG playoff odds to decide how much teams believe in themselves but it's an interesting view.  Admittedly my 3 favorite teams to try to match up with have quality at 1b.  Well, Hosmer?  He's their only regular LH bat though.  I don't see them trading that out.  At this point I don't think it's him that gets traded early. 

Trading EE could include receiving an overpaid/broken reliever to reclaim and ease the 2020 cost of Edwin.  

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