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6 and 140 to Darvish? Duquette just gave the M's an early visit from Santa. I would be pumped if JD went in 1st round swinging and landed a hay-maker like that.
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Hanjag offers the back of his hand ...er, of his envelope here:
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The departing FAs (Valencia, Dyson, Ruiz) -13 million combined
Gallardo declined -13 Mill
Kuma performace incentives could have taken -10M to 15M declined.
Smyly made 7 M this year and would have got a big raise if healthy to the -10-11 M range.
so -52 M off between the 6 mentioned.
....
Seager gets a +8.5 M raise
Zunino and Paxton will get several more million each but other than that there was the Leake trade. (b-ref.com gives $3.2M for Zuumball and $5.7M for Zeus - Dr. D)
Leake will make +11 M.
Segura gets +3.4 more to 9.6M
Erasmo will go up +1 M+/-
+52 M give or take off
- 30M for Leake and raises
Total = -22M less
Fuzzy dummy math. I am not sure where the pay figures come from we added Erasmo, Alonso, Leake as higher salary types is their pay pro-rated for season remaining? Time will tell
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Thanks Hanjag. The b-ref.com contracts page largely agrees with your figures. They total the M's commitments at $113.2M to date along with another $31.4M in arbitration, another $6M for miscellaneous such as rookie money for callups, totalling $150.7M so far spent.
But for some reason they've got the Mariners paying all of Mike Leake's $17M. They also have the M's going to arb with Drew Smyly (LOL) to the tune of $6.9M, and cheerfully paying David Phelps' $5.8M in arbitration. So that's -13M or -19M depending on Phelps.
Meaning: $131-132M without Phelps, or $137-38 with him.
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Cots' Baseball Contracts has the M's Opening Day payrolls at:
2017: $154M (#13 in baseball according to this source)
2016: $142M ($171M year-end)
2015: $123M
2014: $90M
I don't think the M's have yet said anything about what their payroll is for 2018. As Dr. D has protested several times and at much greater length, MLB payrolls are what the ballclubs choose them to be.
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NOW, THIS IS THE WAY TO BURY A LEDE, Dept.
Jim Duquette has an article up predicting the destinations of the top 25 free agents. #1 Yu Darvish? To Seattle. $140 over six, rather than $160.
Drive home safely,
Dr D
Comments
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He does not have the M's as interested in Otani.
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The M's have made it clear they're in. Seattle is a natural landing zone. It just wouldn't be as exciting as seeing him go to the Yankee$.
4
What are those worth these days? $18mil? Raise your hand if you don't think Mike Leake is the equal of Alex Cobb. Also raise your hand if you don't think Yu Darvish will significantly outperform Alex Cobb from 2018-2020.
I'm liking that Leake trade more and more as the FA market for SP ramps up.
In related (QO) news, it looks like Carlos Santana got a QO from Cleveland. I'd still sign him in a heartbeat for that RIDICULOUSLY paltry estimate up over at MLBTR ($12mil/year for two years?), and consider him an upgrade over Alonso.
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Fashion an SP lineup of Darvish/Oh Oh Tawny/ SixPax/ Felix/ Leake ... all on special for a combined price of around $65 mil per.
And a young stacked pen and rotation in Tacoma.
I'm sending Cigar and his $19.5 mil away for a 1B and a 3B for a little over half that, and keeping Dyson for between 8 and $8.8.
zoom
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3/$36-40M for Cozart beats any 1B option. Full time player gives bench flexibility. Price leaves room for outfield and starting pitching. Improves infield defense. Cano to 1B now is better than any alternative.
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