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One of my favorite weekly features is Greg Johns' mailbag. It might not be as nutrient-dense as the comments thread at a university blog, and might not be as lively as a NinersNation recap of Trent Baalke's career. But Johns usually succeeds in embedding a bit of info that you and I can use.
On Haniger today:
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What is the chance of Mitch Haniger being the everyday right fielder this season? Is his upside that good?
-- Carlos C., Tampa
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto is very high on Haniger, who he considered a key part of the Taijuan Walker - Jean Segura trade with the D-backs. At this point, the plan is for a right-field timeshare between the right-handed-hitting Haniger and lefty-swinging Seth Smith, but much will be determined by how well Haniger hits when given the chance to show exactly what he can do at the Major League level.
Dipoto loves the defensive ability and athleticism of Haniger, who has played primarily center field in the Minors and during his brief time with the D-backs last year. The 26-year-old has hit well against right-handers in the past, so it's possible he could develop into an everyday option. Though he hit just .191 in his first 14 games with Arizona last year as a rookie, he put up a .258/.333/.500 line with five homers and 11 RBIs over his final 20 games. He was also a .321 hitter with 25 homers in 129 games at Double-A and Triple-A in 2016, so the potential is certainly there.
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1) Johns has been around long enough to grok what most fans never will: that come March, the playing time will shake itself out. But Seth Smith is like a joke candle on a birthday cake - you can extinguish him on paper as many times as you like, and he keeps fizzling back on base.
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2) But he's also been around long enough to grok what happens to a young player when a GM reqlinquishes the fillings out of his teeth for him. See also Karns, Nate. Remember the definition of gullibility? Believing what a person keeps saying when it's contrary to what they keep doing. Oh, sure, there will be competition among equals. But you can't squander a $4B airplane for nothing.
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3) Speaking of words vs. actions, JeDi brings up the issue of plus-plus defense in right field ... according to my calculations, Seth Smith would have to hit .343/.404/.545 to make up the defensive gap here. (Name that .343 player season.) The last time we used a center fielder in right at Safeco, it turned out fine. By "fine" we mean ten straight seasons over 5 WAR. There are some defensive bases to cherry-pick out there.
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4) Here is the November SSI grok on Haniger. Swing analysis included.
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5) Here is a fresh read on Haniger this week. Good thoughts on UZR and "prospect fatigue." Worth the clickthrough.
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6) Two Words: .670.
Enjoy,
Dr D