Seattle Sports Insider

How Much of an Edge Do You Get from the "Run Prevention Model" ?

defense wins championships - except when it doesn't

Posted by

2/18/16

Dave Fleming points out, today, that elite pitching is NOT required to win the World Series. Not lately. As you know, Dr. Detecto specializes in debunking tired old myths ... so that he can replace them with his own even weirder myths.

Yes, seriously. The myth carousel is about five or six slots around, before it clicks back to home base. Then we get to slam in the speedloader for another iteration, much like with a Smith & Wesson model 627.

Still, here's what Fleming says:

EXEC SUM and we're talking High-UP Exec

From -10 to -30 years gone, that is from 1985-2005 A.D., the World Series was heavily packed with Happy-Happy Joy-Joy pitching:

WS Appearances	1985-1995	1996-2005
#1-Ranked Team	4	5
#2-Ranked Team	3	4
#3-Ranked Team	2	2
Total	9 (45%)	11 (55%)

A full half of World Series teams ranked in the 90th percentile of MLB teams for pitching WAR. The rest finished 4th or 5th or 8th (among 30 teams). Well, there were 4 of 40 teams that finished outside the top 12 for pitching WAR ... such as John Hart's roto-style 1997 Indians. The big lineup with Manny and Thome and Belle, the wussy pitching staff, and Jose Mesa's legendary Fail.

But! From -10 to -0 years ago, 2006-2015 A.D., the World Series saw a crazy number of bad pitching staff traipse through it:

Year	WS Winner	Rank	WS Loser	Rank
2015	Royals	15^th	Mets	7^th
2014	Giants	26^th	Royals	10^th
2013	Red Sox	13^th	Cardinals	4^th
2012	Giants	19^th	Tigers	1^st
2011	Cardinals	17^th	Rangers	8^th
2010	Giants	4^th	Rangers	3^rd
2009	Yankees	7^th	Phillies	20^th
2008	Phillies	12^th	Rays	10^th
2007	Red Sox	6^th	Rockies	11^th
2006	Cardinals	27^th	Tigers	7^th

Fleming points out that the last 5 World Series were won by teams with much worse pitching staffs than the losers had. He has two theories as to this trend, both of which Dr. D finds compelling:

Could be that bullpens are getting important. The rankings above are by WAR, which emphasizes starters.
Could be that "average" and "bad" pitchers are now pretty good. That's a whole other post.

DR's DIAGNOSIS

You can come up with a lot of reasons for depression, LrKrBoi29. Seratonin deficiency. Being Caitlyn Jenner at a Republican convention (yes, really). Being Caitlyn Jenner at any American university, trying to explain why he doesn't vote Democratic. Having an ancestor who was a Druid. But people are actually depressed because, um, their lives are depressing. If I just lost my wife and children in a bear attack, I'll probably be kind of sad. Similarly, Justin Smoak is going to transcend any Zoloft dosage you might attempt.

And there are a lot of explanations for the weird table above. But the real reason for it is that elite pitching isn't required to win a championship. John Hart would be proud. He figured, why spend huge $$$ on 3-4 rotation aces and try to carousel your way into a decent offense? It's the pitchers who get hurt! Lock in your big bats and do it the other way around. The 1990's Indians would win 100 games with starters like Chad Ogea, Charles Nagy and Mark Clark.

....

As to those last five teams. You can see what you want in the 2015 Royals inkblot test. Old-school pitching coaches look at KC's rings, and see frolicking puppies in their pitching staff. SSI looks at Jeremy Guthrie and sees crucified kitties. Either way, the blinkin' Kansas City Royals have not found the solution to baseball.

The 2014 Giants had their 2-3-4-5 starters go 97-86-73-83 in ERA+. But they had all nine batters hit 104-114* except Posey, who hit 143. There just isn't any way to accuse the 2014 Giants of rolling into Opening Day with a pitching-oriented ballclub. (Neither is there any way of accusing them of using Belle-Lofton-Manny-Thome-Baerga to compensate.)

etc.

....

Last week we pointed out that DiPoto is using a 1990's-style 5x5 Shandler approach to build the roster:

2-3 hitting stars $30
8 more hitters x $9
1 Opening Day Ace x $25
9 pitchers x $1 ... and change them all out, as frequently as your underwear
I think DiPoto forgot the part about Mariano Rivera

A "Run Prevention Model" is fine for Safeco, but ... is that actually what DiPoto is doing? :- ) There was never a better time to go John Hart.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Dr's R/X

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Nelson Cruz

Comments

"so that he can replace them with his own even weirder myths"

Hats off. One of your better lines.

On the pitching WAR issue, I wonder if the results are skewed because they count every inning pitched in a regular season...while in the playoffs, essentially only the top three starters and top three relievers matter. I wonder if that would change the rankings.

Also, if your stud is a Randy Johnson...who is light years beyond anyone else on your staff...but he has to pitch the last game of the Championship Series...I may be able to win the Series only having to face him once.

Finally, JD didn't inherit the A's ineup--his two $30 lineup studs were here waiting for him. So maybe 'run prevention' was the thing that he needed to add...rather than build on as a foundation?

Maybe this isn't new to others, but it was to me

Here's a link to a list of 'cluster luck' last year for all teams. You don't have to be a sabremetrician to realize that if you spread out the hits you allow rather than let them come in just a couple innings, you'll give up fewer runs. Conversely, on offense you want to clump your hits together.

https://thepowerrank.com/cluster-luck/

The M's were essentially neutral on defense...but 27th on offense--which seems odd to me, because the difference between our good hitters and bad hitters last year would seem (to me) to suggest that we would have been better than average in seeing our hits come from contiguous spots in the lineup.

Finally, maybe part of the dissonance between the PECOTA projections for the Royals and their actual results is incorporated here--they were #1 in combined cluster luck.

VERY nice chart Diderot

We had the consistent impression last year that the dice just refused to roll the M's way. .. they had other problems too. But -52 runs based on that one factor alone, wow.

6 of the 7 unluckiest teams got the vast majority of their bad luck on offense. Hm.

The reason seems to jump out at me.

Why is pitching suddenly less important? Because it's far less rare. The difference between a good pitching staff and a bad one in 1995 was like 2 runs per game (5.25 and 3.25, right?)...the difference now is like 1 run per game. And with offense becoming rare, a team with game-breaking offense will be more rare and more difficlt to handle compared to the regular season expectations than a team with great pitching. The "bad" teams still only allow 4 R/G...OK 4.50 :)

Mutual Exclusivity

It is a certainty that DiPoto is attempting to improve the team both offensively and defensively. His emphasis on having a Run Prevention Model TM could simply be his thumb on a scale when evaluating players.

Before and after images that would make one consider, "What is important to DiPoto?":

Trumbo or Morrison vs. Lind + Montero/Lee - Defense isn't terribly important at 1B if you can get a legit offensive threat.
Miller vs. Marte - Defense at SS is important.
Zunino vs. Ianetta - A certain level of offensive competence at Ca is important. Defense cannot be the be-all end-all at this position.
Sucre (or Sucre equivalent, get better Sugar Jesus!) vs. Clevenger - 2Ca doesn't need to be a defensive specialist.
Jabari Blash vs. Boog Powell - *shrug* Wash? Interesting question: Who will have the better career?
James Jones vs. Leonys Martin - Defense is so important at CF that you can take a flier on offense.
Bloomquist vs. Sardinas - It's important to get the cobwebs in the corners when you clean out the clubhouse.
Smith platoon in LF, Cruz in RF, Trumbo at DH vs. Aoki in LF, Smith platoon in RF, Cruz at DH - Defensive upgrade at LF, Defensive upgrade in RF, Offensive upgrade at DH

*Extra Bonus*

Carson Smith & Roenis Elias & Iwakuma vs. Jonathan Aro & Wade Miley & $$$ (Plan B when Iwakuma was 'lost') - A heavy-hitting #2 is important even if you gotta pay out the nose for it and guaranteed money is more valuable than the difference between Smith vs. Aro and Elias vs. Karns

It seems to me that, based off of this, DiPoto has a minimum expectation for offense AND defense at each position; the level for each being different for each position. So his Run Prevention Model isn't so much him screaming, "ALL THE DEFENSE!" into the night sky, but more of a nuanced paradigm. People are focusing on the "Run Prevention" and less on the "Model."

My 2cents

First, I think pitching is getting better, top to bottom, because both coaches and players (and agents) have figured out: (1) how to preserve arms rather than "use them til they drop"; (2) how to recover from injuries that would have been catastrophic just a few years ago; and (3) how to slot specialists into the spots where they are most effective.

One can argue that 2015 was the best pitching year in history.

Thus, as Matt says, is lower-ranked pitching actually "bad pitching"?

Second, the steroid era ended right about 2006. Interesting how that lines up. Run-of-the-mill hitters were doing things never done by Babe, Teddy and Willie. Maybe you needed Pedro or Unit or Clemens -- plus a strong supporting cast -- in order to make it to the finish in those years.

Third, before 1994 you had to win your division to make the postseason, so it was probably less likely for teams with lower-ranked pitching to even make it to the playoffs.