I'm 100% with you--EXCEPT ;-)
We've got James Paxton.
*All* you need to do, as Johnson & Schilling demonstrated, is field a REASONABLE offense and defense, keep your 1-A and 1-B starters healthy, and you can beat ANYONE in a playoff series *without* anything resembling 'luck,'
*IF* they can go out and secure a legit 1-B starter, and *IF* they can keep Paxton healthy for a full season...they legitimately don't *need* anything more than that to be a terror in the playoffs, regardless of how tight the squeeze might have been to slip into the postseason.
That may sound like blind optimism, but it truly isn't. James Paxton is on the Clayton Kershaw level, talent-wise. He *is* Randy Johnson minus durability. Only a couple teams in baseball can claim to have such a powerful weapon in their SP arsenal.