Articles on David Phelps
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In Spring Training this year, Fangraphs' Alex Chamberlain made Phelps one of his "Ten Fearless Predictions" or somesuch. The prediction: that Phelps would be a Top of Rotation (TOR) starter. Top 60 is what he said technically; if you shuffled 60 baseball cards and dealt them out to each team, they'd get two each, so, TOR. Phelps and Mike Montgomery were his two hunches for SP.
Dipoto gave us about 25 words on Phelps :- ) a few of which were to the subject of Phelps' versatility, that he can spot start.
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And even give you lockdowns from that #6SP role: Here is Chamberlain's earlier January post on Phelps' 2016. David Phelps had gone from 89.9 to 90.2 MPH on the fastball in 2013-15 way up to 93.5 MPH in the bullpen in 2016 ... but when spot-started in 2016, he held his velocity. Not too dissimilar from what seemed to happen with Mike Montgomery. Chamberlain gives the graphs on the sustained velo, along with the punch line: "Phelps was essentially a 5-WAR starter in August." He chides the Marlins for "the error of their ways" in not converting Phelps to being their best starting pitcher.
At b-ref's Game Logs you can review his August starts. The gist,
@ COL (!) = 4.1 IP, 0 ER with a 1:4 CTL
SFG = 5.0 IP, 1 ER with a 3:5 CTL
@ CIN = 5.1 IP, 2 ER with a 1:8 CTL
@ PIT = 6.0 IP, 0 ER with a 2:9 CTL
SDP = 3.2 IP, 3 ER with a 3:6 CTL
Giving the Marlins a bunch of strike-ball counts along the lines of 45-for-72. Hard to see from that how Phelps walks four guys a game. The total was 2-1, 2.22 ERA with 32:10 CTL in 24 innings. Zeus should do so well over his next few games. In 2017, Phelps hasn't yet started a game. The upshot is, he seems to give you Mike Montgomery style role flipping.
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Also at Fangraphs, there was this roto-style piece that predicted Phelps as the 7th-most likely setup man to take over a closer role. They used K-BB, with GB% and HR's, hard hit contact, and xFIP for those setup men who'd been holding tough games. There were only 25 men in both leagues with 1+ Z-scores (a measure of standard deviations from the average) and Phelps' was near three.
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Pitch F/X gives him a ratio of 5 fastballs to 3 cutters and 2 power sliders. You can meet Mr. Snappy on this fun replay. Been a while since the Mariners had a righty Kerry Wood type two plane slider in that mold.
Here is a 94 MPH heater that finds the mitt for a called K on a lefty.
Here are several hard sidearm fastballs, most of which are up in the zone, that makes him look like a power pitcher. I'd be careful about pegging him as an overwhelming guy; his extension is below average and it effectively takes a foot off his fastball which is 92-95 to start with.
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Dr's R/X - Level 101 Scan
Does not look at first blush like a David Robertson, Mark Melancon type super impact add to the pen. Unless, that is, you start with the price JeDi paid ... :- )
But as we know, some of the most valuable pieces in a championship run come from "Raising the Floor." The comparison to a right handed Mike Montgomery shows up everywhere you turn. Montgomery came to be a nearly-beloved piece in Seattle, very painful to part with, because of the big contributions out of lower-leverage situations. You'd be down 4-2 in the fifth, he'd come in and blow people away for three innings, and next thing you know you'd have stolen a win.
This year, however, Phelps has gone more than one inning only five times as the Marlins deployed him in the 8th inning. He has been solid to better than average against LHP too, but the power slider makes him a great choice for 7ths or 8ths that see 2 righties coming up the first 3 hitters:
√ .172/.223/.241 = 2016 vs right
√ .225/.326/.313 = 2017 vs right
You assume that Phelps will be in the mix early, in lower-leverage situations, to see how fast he builds trust. Relievers' roles tend to shake out based on big outs and big holds.
Enjoy,
Dr D