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PLAYOFFS BA-BEH

Still -1.5.  But the three teams between us and 'Rays are all .500, so we're the thinnest possible whisker behind them.  In this first half of parity, Matt figures 88 wins could easily qualify and 85 might possibly. ... let's say 87; the M's would have to go 51-38 to do that.  That's equivalent to a 93-win season, and 93 wins over the course of one-half a year is exponenentially easier than being a 93-win TEAM.  So, nothing farfetched in the least.

Tuesday's game was extra innings but it was not a 50-50 coin flip.  The M's had 15 baserunners to the Tigers' 10, and a 5:6 EYE compared to the Tigers' 3:8.

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K-SWAG

He could play for my club, I think.

Is he in the middle of an off year?  Nah.  If you look carefully at his statline he's doing the same thing he's done for several years:  batting .270 give or take, EYE ratio of 0.60 give or take, 90 RBI give or take, 7.3000% swing and miss rate to the micron.  (In fact his fish rate is going down, suggesting further pitch-recog development.)

What has "changed" is his homers per fly ball, which is a luck stat.  Three years previous, 13%, 12%, 14%.  Now this year 6%.  Not because of him; his launch velo is over 90 MPH and his distance is over 220 feet.  He just has seen six or eight deep flies caught on the warning track.  It'll change.

Last player on the club to worry about is Kyle Seager.  Literally.  Write his name in the lineup and move your attention to your problems.  :- )

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BEN GAME-R's LUCK STATS

Gamel had three hits again.  Seeing-eye grounders?  Balls dropping in between OF's?  Um, no.  Actually:  (1) a double whistled cleanly into the corner ... (2) a low line drive that skipped off the cut of the grass into CF ... and (3) a power-alley home run.  Gamel is benefitting from BABIP luck but he is also laying enemy pitchers waste.

You can't sustain a .400 BABIP for a career, or even for a season.  But you can deserve one for a month.  This is what it looks like.  Gamel's white-hot, like Zunino is.

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Malcontent produced his usual interesting stat splits to wonder whether --- > Recent/Leadoff Gamel is going for more contact than Early/Tablesetter Gamel.  It will be a great thought to keep an eye on.  Watching it closely tonight, my subjective impression was that he was taking the same approach as always.  Could be wrong.

If I'm not wrong, it's great news.  Gamel's recent 95% contact rate, and his willingness to go after pitchers earlier in the count, would speak to his gaining ground in pitch anticipation.

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Corran wondered how high Gamel's BABIP might stay, if things broke right.  Maybe super high, I guess.  Wouldn't expect it, because BABIP is usually driven by blistering-hot grounders through the infield (Goldschmidt) or blazing speed down the line (Ichiro).  But as a fast lefty hitter with a lot of line drives, the BABIP will be high.

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ARIEL MIRANDA

A lefty facing a tough RH lineup, he gave up three or four sizzled shots early on.  They weren't even on bad pitches; the two-run homer (IIRC) was on a 3-2 pitch that Zunino wanted in, and got in.  The Tigers looked to me like they had the pitches.

But then Miranda threw a few changeups in the dirt, and the Tigers fished, and suddenly there was some doubt in their minds.  From there Miranda went AHA!, started expanding the zone on the overaggressive Tigers, and he got into a rocking chair.  Like we sez, he's still in his first 25 starts as a major leaguer.

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GUILLERMO HEREDIA

The internet vortex ate a separate post here.  Dr. D had, in April, wondered about a comp between Gamel and Brett Gardner.  Nope, Gardner is an elite speed player.  Gamel is a different type of tweener altogether.  Every "tweener" OF with limited power hopes to be Gardner, like every 87 MPH lefty hopes to be Jamie Moyer.  Many are called, few are chosen.

But!  What do you think about the similarities between HEREDIA and Gardner?  Heredia is a true +15 runs defender and what if it was HE who comp'ed to Gardner all along?

• Huge defense - check
• Patience - Heredia's OOZ fish rate is 23%
• HIT skill - Heredia's swing-and-miss rate is 5%
• LF/CF ability - check

In 2005 as a 25-year-old, Gardner hit something like .270/.345/.379 in half a year.  His first three years, up to age 28, he OPS'ed 87, 105, 92, going from memory.  Heredia does not steal bases like Gardner, but you and I are hoping for more batting skill than Gardner had early on.

If Dr. D was looking for an glove-first Tweener who is worth 3-4 WAR per year, but who will accept a role, maybe he was looking in the wrong place?

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MISCELLANY

1) Mike Zunino got ripped off on a strike-3 call by C.B. Bucknor, the worst ump in the league, and glared at Bucknor.  Was glad to see it rather than the previous, ultra-meek Zunino acceptances of such calls.  Maybe it means he's thinking of himself as a hitter?

Amigo axs, when is it safe to believe in Zunino?  LOL.  After about five hundred more at-bats of looking comfortable when managing a pitch count, it sez here.  :- )  But as we stand he's got special talents it's pleasant to watch.

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2) Edwin Diaz pitched for the third (!) straight game.  I didn't see the velo charts, but in game 2 he was hitting 100 MPH despite the back-to-back.  Whatever the reason, he is appearing to manifest better stamina and strength.

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3) Looking VERY forward to seeing Max Povse and his Ultra King Felix (TM) pitch sequences.  Lookout Landing has a detailed review of his pitch arsenal.  People scratch their heads over the idea of Povse in the bullpen.  Kids these days!  No respect for Earl's Laws of Baseball.  A rookie pitcher's place is in the bullpen.  :- )

Good chance Povse is here to stay.  Then after he's thrown so well, so long, that his fans are annoyed he's not starting, throw him in there and rake in the bounty.  Maybe September, maybe next year.  Love it.

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4) Bat571 noted the interesting synergy between Jarrod Dyson being on first base, and the you-better-be-CAREful Zuumball at the plate.  Will be watching that the rest of the year.  

By the way Fangraphs has two role players, Gamel and Dyson, leading the M's in WAR at 1.9 each, in playing time that amounts to maybe 40% of a season.  It's hilarious; I'm scrolling through the 3-4-5-6 hitters on video, in order to get to the fun at-bats.

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BABVA,

Dr D