But if you invest $300,000 on a spec home, and the ephemereal Optimism turns to Pessimism as it is built, you're going to lose a hundred grand. That's not speculation on my part; it's something that every investor has to understand if he isn't going to become a statistic.
Exactly the same thing applies if you're going to pay the $100,000 (?) to start a Starbucks or a car wash or an RV park. The entire concept of economic expansion has to include grave respect for the consumers' states of mind.
The NYSE investors are predicting an economic boom. It's important to weight their opinion appropriately. Those guys are chess grandmasters, absolute wizards at what they do. they're not always right but they are much, much smarter than me.
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Good question on Hillary. My basic response is, probably not. But the addition of jobs is a lagging indicator. As investment begins, job growth follows on. Building a spec house requires many more workers in month 5 than in month 1.
I AM SURE (for what that's worth) that the campus-popular suggestion "the President doesn't matter" is wrong. You might as well say the EPA doesn't matter and overregulation doesn't matter. That taxes don't matter and therefore the price of lumber and labor is irrelevant.
So all the Wall Street analysts are saying "WOW AWESOME THAT TRUMP IS RUNNING THE MONEY NOW!" and Trump's detractors dismiss it with "Who wants a guy in the pocket of Wall Street?" :- ) They haven't thought it through.
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Good discussion Malcontent. Very cogent arguments as always.