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Comment in regards to "Hall of Famers" not declining after age 30.
Ken Griffey - last 150+ season? 1998 - age 28. The fact that he managed a 144 at age 35 does NOT negate the reality that he declined *AND* lost lots of time to injury. BOTH are true -- and any attempt to sidestep this reality by blaming lowered production on injury misses the point. Injury is PART of the reason that age causes decline.
Seatle dumped Griffey at the PERFECT time -- immediately AFTER they had gotten his best seasons, and exactly when it could be PREDICTED that he would likely begin declining, and begin to be injured.
AROD just completed his age 32 season. His best two years were age 29 and age 31 (173 and 177 OPS+). At this moment, we do NOT know what the next 6-8 years will bring. But we DO know that the odds are AGAINST him maintaining his previous level - AND it is also brutally likely that his age 31 season (177 OPS+) will, in fact, be the best season of his entire career. But AROD's career track is VASTLY superior to that of Tex.
Of course, we just went thru the steroid era, where we can only guess how many players avoided their "true" declines thru better chemistry.
It *IS* true that some of the pre-steroid GIANTS of the game avoided the typical fate of "mere" humans. Willie Mays, Henry Aaron come to mind. But I don't find it logical to try and equate a player like Tex to someone like Aaron.
Tex has had exactly TWO 150+ seasons. Aaron, by age 28, had managed 7. Heck, Vlad managed 5 150+ seasons by age 28. His next 4 seasons have been 154, 138, 147, 130. That's still great. But it is *NOT* the 160s that he was posting in his 20s. DECLINE does not mean scrap heap.
The 160 player may decline to 130
The 150 player may decline to 120
The problem arises in the "perception" that the 120 is actually still as valuable as the 150.
Tex is "perceived" as a 150 OPS+ player because that is what he has done the past two seasons. In truth, Tex is a 134 OPS+ player, (his career average).
Is it "possible" that he could post a 170 next season, or pull a Chipper Jones, and reverse a downward trend? Sure, it's possible. But, based on the history of the game, it is HIGHLY unlikely. First off, viewing Tex as a 150 OPS+ guy is dangerous, because it ignores the 126 he posted at age 26. It puts 100% of the assessment of his value on his two most recent years, (not completely unreasonable). But it also puts 100% of the assessment of his value on his two BEST years, (a lot riskier).