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When you think the rest of the world is crazy, it's time to start worrying about yourself :- )  but...

Roto-Champ Taro demands that Dr. D admit he's wrong about F-Gut.  Here's my last statement on Franklin Gutierrez. (Famous last words!)

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First thing Taro m'man:  you're picking a little uptick in his offense ... he spikes up to 99 for a second and BOOM "it's time you admit you were wrong".   That's point A. 

Let's see whether Gutierrez ever posts the 110-120 OPS+ seasons that Cammy did in Seattle -- let's see Gutierrez put a 109 and 123 OPS+ IN THE BANK -- and then I will call him a minor star, as Cammy was a minor star for a few years.

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=== Framin' the Debate ===

Wrong about what, by the way?  What is it you think I have asserted about Franklin Gutierrez ?

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My fundamental opinions about Gutierrez are -- and have always been -- that

(1) the jury is out on his offense;

(2) he's a terrible match for Safeco offensively;

(3) I'm not sure whether he is GOOD vs. GREAT on defense, but considering his lack of speed, I'm skeptical that he's great.

What about that has been proven wrong?  :- )

Prior to this season, I *did* say that it was open to some question whether he was going to be a starting outfielder in the major leagues.  I'd say he has resolved that one.  At this point it looks clear that he will be at least an average-solid regular, and there's some room (20%) for his developing into an impact starter.

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=== Guess I'm Hallucinating Here Dept. ===

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I remember when the biggest Seattle blog published, straight-faced, that Mike Cameron saved the Seattle Mariners 80 doubles per season.  That's 80 doubles more than some other quality center fielder, not 80 doubles more than you or me.  

And everybody nodded, yup.  He's that good.

Cameron turned out to be an excellent outfielder, but the idea that he was saving 40, 50, 60 runs per year -- shaving .50 off the staff ERA or whatever -- turned out to be just a wee bit of hyperbole.  Check out his UZR/150s:  http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OF

Dr. D was the only man in the world who, prior to the 2004 season, protested that Mike Cameron was benefitting from the park and was overrated defensively.  But check those fangraphs stats.

Is Mike Cameron perhaps the best CF in the game?  Maybe.  But that's "best among peers."  One good outfielder is only a shade better than another good outfielder.  Nobody saves 30 runs more than Torii Hunter does.

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=== Jumps and Angles Dept. ===

Franklin Gutierrez LOOKS to me like he gets nice jumps, but then so do most ML center fielders.  When is the last time you were able to catch an ML CF not-in-stride when the ball was hit?

Gutierrez unquestionably judges the landing point of the ball EXTREMELY well, but then again, ML outfielders who can't do that, don't play out there very long.  Not unless they're cleanup hitters.

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I can tell you with absolute 100% certainty that Franklin Gutierrezhas mediocre speed compared to other ML center fielders.  He doesn't steal bases; he doesn't get triples; he hits the ball in the SS hole and gets thrown out by three steps.

So if he's losing 1-2 strides over 30 yards to, say, Ichiro, how the deuce is he getting it back off the starting blocks?  Much less gaining 2 strides out of thin air someplace?  Have you ever seen a 100-meters guy jump out of the blocks 10 feet ahead of anybody else?  He's trying for one foot, not ten feet.

If Franklin Gutierrez doesn't lose a stride to Ichiro over 30 yards, why the deuce is he not stealing bases?  That +1 stride is exactly why other guys can steal bases and Franklin Gutierrez cannot.

I can tell you with near certainty that Mike Cameron was a better defender than Gutierrez is.  Cammy did everything F-Gut does, but with speed into the bargain.   Yet Cameron wasn't a miracle man with the glove, either.

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=== Sound Bites Dept. ===

The Mariners themselves have consistently given the hard-sell on TV, using zone ratings and other saber stats to advise soccer mom that Gutierrez wins lots of games with his glove.  Nobody's blaming them there.  The broad point is a fair one:  they overhauled a 100-game loser by getting ballplayers who play the game the right way, and it's a good thing for fans to pay attention to the less-visible parts of the game.

I'd be curious to know whether Blengino's saber crew sincerely believes that Gutierrez saves a kazillion runs *compared to other fine center fielders,* but it doesn't worry me much either way.

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=== If Not A, then Not B, so.... ===

Fett protests, reasonably, that being a track guy doesn't make you a great outfielder.  I agree completely.  Claudell Washington was actually a bad outfielder.   Claudell might have been the fastest player ever to make a 25-man roster, him or Donnell Nixon, but Washington's RF's were way below average.

But I'm saying "If Not A, then Not B" and Fett's trying to prove that wrong with "If A, Not Necessarily B".  :- )   

ASSERT:  If you didn't have a pony, you weren't going to deliver mail, 200 years ago.  REFUTE:  Hey, look at that guy, he has a pony, and he doesn't deliver mail...   ?

The counter doesn't apply.  It is definitely true that to be a world-class outfielder you need instincts.  The 30 center fielders in the majors have them.  Claudell Washington and Juan Pierre don't.  But what does that prove?

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=== Damning With Faint Praise, Dept. ===

I suspect that Gutierrez is a very fine outfielder, playing in the best fielder's position in baseball, and that everybody WANTS to believe he's great.   Every person in Seattle would love to believe that Franklin Gutierrez is a glorious center fielder.  Love the enthusiasm.

I think he is a very good center fielder, was a nice pickup, is a key part of the rebuild, and I'm glad to have him here.  As far as his being Richie Ashburn out there, I say the emperor has no clothes on.  

I could be wrong.  As with Mike Cameron's -80 doubles saved per season, time will tell.

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=== Can You Win Your Next Pennant With This Player Dept. ===

So here's a guy who OPS+'s 95, give or take, and he plays a glove spot, and he's one of the league's best defenders there.

Can you win a pennant with that player?  Of course.  The more so since he's an arb player.   Salary considered, Gutierrez is a major plus towards a pennant run over the next few years.

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If Dustin Ackley is Robin Ventura with the stick, then I'm playing Dustin Ackley in CF and then getting a 300/400/500 guy for left.  If you guys want Ackley for LF, it's okay by me. :- )

-Jeff