Speed in the Outfield
One amigo has a quick snapshot below in which, at first glance, he doesn't see much correlation between track speed and the UZR table.
Which is fine as far as it goes. :- ) I'm sure you could ID the problems, as well as I could, with referring to that as a controlled study.
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=== Inkblot Tests ===
Not wishing to be snippy :- ) I would almost call this the defining test of whether we've let our slide rules blot out the sun on us. If you don't think that running fast is important in a baseball outfield, you have never worn cleats, end of story.
It's like saying it's not important to be tall in basketball. I have no doubt whatsoever that a math guy could design little mini-studies that demonstrate height does not correlate with scoring average in the NBA. And I have no doubt that such mini-studies would fail to perceive the many invisible ways that the game self-adjusts around the very thing that we're failing to measure.
Steve Nash is great. Dwight Howard might be better than Yao Ming. But get on the YMCA court one time, against a 6"5" brother who is LOOONNNNNGGGGG, and you will immediately understand why the entire game revolves around length.
I don't mean this arrogantly. I mean it literally. If my daughter, who doesn't play basketball, tells me she has a brilliant proof that height doesn't matter in basketball? I don't bother to debate her. I smile and say, that's nice, honey.
We sabermetricians are very smart 90% of the time and totally absurd about 10% of the time ;- ) and that 10% is why baseball scouts are slow to accept us.
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Catching balls in a baseball game starts and ends with footspeed. It is true that the entire pool of players is edited to include only fast players, and therefore things like jump and angles matter. But if you start thinking that footspeed doesn't matter even in CENTER field, you're too high up in the third deck. :- )
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=== Short-Term and Long-Term Defensive Metrics ===
Positioning?! That's important in any ONE year. But it self-corrects over time. It's why Raul Ibanez looked terrible last year, but looks fine this year. Saberdudes were sure that Raul himself was terrible. Raul tried to tell us that positioning played a big part.
Great outfield defenders -- those who change the game for different teams, in different parks, for different managers -- are those who combine unusual speed with great technique.
Positioning -- and context -- camoflages inherent ability, only in the short term. Right now I think Gutierrez' context is camoflaging the fact that he's inherently a "65" defender as opposed to an "80" defender.
I could be wrong: we will know in 5 years.
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=== Math Club Dept. ===
That speed is the most important factor in OF play -- that is a given for anybody who's ever played. If you want one purely math-club way to perceive that fact, just do this:
(1) Take all of the best all-time CF'ers.
(2) Do not use your own personal defensive metric, and do not use one that was invented last year.
(3) Use large, simple, inescapable metrics, like who won 12 gold gloves, who did Earl Weaver say was great, who had CAREER range factors that drop your jaw.
(4) ID this pool of awesome CF defenders.
(5) Notice that their great defense is reflected in their baseball speed scores. (We don't say the correlation is 1.0. We say it is REFLECTED.)
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Just as an example, the following defenders were all conceded by EVERYbody to be great defenders:
Willie Mays
Mickey Mantle when he had good knees
Andruw Jones
Cesar Cedeno
Garry Maddox
Paul Blair
Cesar Geronimo
Devon White
Kenny Lofton
Mike Cameron* (maybe)
Ichiro (as right fielder)
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Though Dale Murphy won multiple Gold Gloves, you will find scouts arguing about how good his glove was. I am talking about CF's about whom NO scout every denied his greatness. Those are listed above. This list includes outfielders UNIVERSALLY acclaimed as game-changing defenders.
These outfielders were great not for one year, but great for ten years. You will NOT find "no correlation" between their baseball speed scores and their dominating OF gloves.
Every single one of the above players could steal bases, and plenty of them. As a group, their triples are higher, their GIDP's lower, their SB%'s higher, and their R/OBP higher than the general population of center fielders.
Show me an outfielder who was historically great, and I will show you an unusually fast man.*
*You might be able to quibble, such as with Roberto Clemente compared to other RF's, but if you are open to argument, the above list should alert you to the principle here.
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=== Either Way, I'm OK Dept. ===
Franklin Gutierrez is unquestionably a plus center fielder. If everybody in the world except me wants to consider him a glove-of-the-decade, hey, be my guest. :- )
Everybody in Seattle thinks Gutierrez is an "80" defender. I think he's a "65" defender. We'll know, later on, who was right. Maybe it's you.
I've got nothing against Mike Cameron II, even RH in Safeco, if that's what Goot is going to be. Just don't ask me if I think he deserves MVP votes, 'cause I wouldn't have given them to Cammy, either.
But both are players that you can win a pennant with.
Cheers,
Dr D