Johnson, Bedard, Washburn, and Big Games Baby
=== CERA in a Vacuum ===
In a vacuum, you wouldn't use "catcher ERA" as the sole basis of any important decisions.
Over one year, even over two years, you might very well see "noise" create a low CERA for your inferior catcher and a high CERA for your better catcher. The "noise" can include tons of things -- which catcher drew better-hitting lineups, which catcher lucked into a better BABIP, which catcher drew which pitchers facing which "favorite" lineups, etc.
Did your backup catcher get Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn when they were facing lineups with 5 lefties in them? CERA doesn't adjust for any of that.
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=== A-L-L the Data Must Fit a Scientific Discovery ===
The problem is that we tend to see a *difficulty* with using a statistic *in a vacuum,* and then we completely throw it out. We forget to use it as one piece of evidence in a well-rounded discussion.
When we do throw out ERA, RBI, CERA, HR, or whatever because we've "outgrown" these stats, we position ourselves to pick-and-choose stats that confirm the assumptions we've already made.
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The other day we saw an argument that Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn don't matter much (!) "because the team's 2009 W/L record in their starts is actually worse than when they don't start."
I had to blink and re-set to "rational response." Okay. Are we saying that we don't expect Erik Bedard to have a higher chance of winning NEXT month than Garrett Olson would?
Bedard, the last four years, is 39-22 (equivalent to a 104-58 season) and in 2006-08, that was for Baltimore and Seattle teams that lost -95.7 games per year. Without him, his teams were 100+ loss catastrophes; with him, they were 104-win titans.
But in his first 11 starts this year, the Mariners are only 6-5, so really we should realize he doesn't matter that much....
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Picking and choosing. We've all got the tendency to select the stats that "confirm" our preconceived biases.
It's not that we USED to use biased arguments, before we learned better. We are, as of July 7, 2009, all human beings who have preferences and who use our logic and intelligence to reinforce those preferences. That's fine, but let's not kid ourselves that we're coming up with "correct" evaluations any more than we used to.
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If you have discovered that the Earth revolves around the Sun, then ALL available data will show itself consistent with that reality. (Some might *look* inconsistent, but will be explainable.) When they thought the Sun revolved around the Earth, 95% of the data was consistent with that...
It's verrrrrrrrrry tough to ask the question, "If I were wrong, how would I know?" But without it, we don't have science and even worse, we don't have the search for truth. We just have arguing.
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=== Pendulums and Overreactions Dept. ===
CERA shouldn't be used in a vacuum, but it shouldn't be ignored because we've outgrown it, either.
Ever since Bill James pointed out, in the 1980's, that catching impact was overrated, sabermetricians have rushed to argue that it doesn't matter *at all.* That's the syndrome that we've repeated 100's and 100s of times since 1985.
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Right now, Rob Johnson's CERA is 2.80, and Kenji Johjima's is 4.93. Those numbers are NOT happening in a vacuum, but if they were, our reaction would still be, "Let's investigate that further."
When we did, we would find that (1) in 2008, CERA's did not reflect the same thing, since Johjima's CERA was a little (.2 to .4 runs) *better* than everybody else's; (2) in 2007, Johjima's CERA was far (1.2 runs) worse than everybody else's; (3) in 2006, Johjima's CERA was far (1.2 runs) worse than the backup's; over his career, Johjima's CERA has been about 1 run worse than his backup's.
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The 4-year numbers don't occur in a vacuum, either. The pitchers on the field have routinely told us that they pitch much better when catchers other than Johjima are behind the plate.
This is like a tennis player telling us repeatedly that that he doesn't play well on grass, and then our checking the numbers and finding out he is in fact lifetime .850 on clay and .490 on grass. At that point, if I keep ignoring the player's OWN reports of why he plays lousy on grass, it is ME being Neanderthal, not the player. At that point, I need to just stop, and ask that tennis player exactly WHY he loses on grass.
The pitchers tell us that Johjima doesn't call pitches to their strengths. Johjima tells us that he calls pitches to the batters' weaknesses. This is the disconnect.
I'm heavy into game theory, and I believe that a Master Of The Game BECOMES GOOD ENOUGH that he is comfortable tailoring his attack to the opponent's weaknesses. I think that this defines mastery -- that you have all weapons at your disposal and you tailor them to the fluid circumstances emerging.
American pitchers do not pitch that way; in this sense they are less accomplished than Japanese pitchers. But Johjima's attempts to adjust have been disastrous. They would be for me, too. If I tried to awkwardly start adjusting my chess, or aikido, attacks based on what I like to do, as opposed to "echoing" my opponent's mistakes, I would play terribly. Johjima calls pitches terribly, because ignoring the batter is extremely awkward for him.
Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer pitch the "Japanese", or Game Master, way. If Johjima called pitches for them, they would probably love him.
And we're not trying to disrespect American pitchers. Felix pitches in a "devolved" way, throwing what he wants to throw, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't beat Team Japan. He probably would. Mike Tyson and George Foreman dictated the fight to their opponents. I'm not saying that you can't play that way.
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As I've said before, I don't suspect this is fundamentally Johjima's fault. I think it's fundamentally everybody else's fault. That's a silly thing to say, but it's occasionally a TRUE silly thing to say. Check Johjima's CERA in the WBCs that Japan always wins.
As San-Man notes, sometimes it's not a manager's fault that a clubhouse quit; it's 25 players' fault. The logical, and sad, thing to do is to change the manager.
I think that Johjima is, in a very real sense, too highly evolved to catch in America. But that comes down to the same thing: he should leave America, and go catch in Japan where he is appreciated.
As you know, we mean it benevolently.
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=== The 2009 Stretch Run ===
Last week, my 17-year-old son learned how to use baseball-reference.com.
I showed him the 2001 Mariners :- ) and all those winning streaks. He sat and stared open-mouthed at the league standings ... the A's won 102 games and finished -14 games back. The Yankees won 95 and finished -21 behind us.
He was furious. "HOW IN THE WORLD DID THAT TEAM NOT WIN THE PENNANT?"
I explained to him about 25 Honda Civics against Clemens, Mussina and Pettitte in a short series. Baseball history is Sandy Koufax vs Bob Gibson, Dave Stewart vs Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson vs Pedro Martinez. It isn't Endy Chavez vs Joe Blanton. There is a REASON all those big games had all those big pitchers.
Cy Young starters aren't less important than we think. They're more important than we think.
Is a baseball season about the pennant, or isn't it? Then don't bring knives to a gunfight. Bring Felix and Erikkkk.
My $0.02,
Jeff