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Great article, Doc.  Outstanding.  You're in a Rob Johnsonesque groove the last few weeks.
In pondering the scout versus geek contest, it occured to me that I've seen a number of "scout adored" players struggle early, (compared to their hype).  But, I also "think" there is a trend in these guys to show improved production as they go UP in levels. 
The sabr-loved prospects tend to destroy low ball, and gradually lose ground as they rise through the system.  And this is why sabr-only prospect projection systems are limited.  The charts I've seen work under a basic template -- the "expected" result is to slowly lose ground as you rise thru the system.  The minors to majors conversion tables I've seen all do basically the same thing -- take the AAA production and multiply it by 0.9x to estimate MLB production.  The stats CAN'T take into account scouting reports.
This is where the analyst has to be able to resolve discrepancies between scouting and production.  This doesn't mean accept the scouts word OR the production.  The trick is to attempt to figure out WHY there is a mismatch, and also come up with suggestions of what might likely happen statistically when a kid DOES get it. 
Tui's minor league aggregate is utterly dismiss territory - .271/.359/.402/.761.  He also has fanned 530 times in 553 games.  The whiff per game guy that is only carrying a .130 ISO isn't going to make ANY SABR prospect watch lists.  The 90 points of patience is the only attractive part of the entire line.
But, go look at the age-22 AAA line: .281/.364/.453/.817 -- The 80-90 points of patience is still there, but suddenly we get a .170 ISO.  Heck, in A+ ball he had an ISO of 73.  In his 100 ABs at Tacoma this season: .250/.342/.450 -- 92 patience and 200 ISO. 
I have no idea if Tui will succeed in the majors.  NOBODY does.  But, there can be statistical tells of a change in a hitter if you look closely.  In 2007, at AA, Tui had 14-SF and 14-DPs (446 ABs).  He was skying or topping the ball.  In 437 ABs the next year, in AAA, he had 4 and 9.  Different team, park ... maybe it was just a difference in guys on base.  But, his RBI total jumped from 57 to 73, (and his run total went up from 74 to 87).  He's scoring more, driving in more, but has a MAJOR plunge in SF and a minor dip in DPs?  Looks to me like a guy who if refining his stroke and gaining consistency. 
As it stands, his K-rate is going to keep him painted as an unlikely breakthru player, especially since has yet to show any tendency to convert his doubles power into HR power, (yet).  But the SCOUTS can typically tell which players have the tools needed to "possibly" hang with the big boys.