Best Pitcher? Whassat?
=== AL Cy Young ===
One of the really fun things about debating (1) Cy Young awards, (2) MVP awards, (3) Hall-of-Fame elections, (4) All-Star starters, (5) Historically-great presidents, (6) Greatest rock guitarists, and (7) least-unfavorite media personalities, is that nobody has any clue what the awards are supposed to mean.
In default, they mean "favorite" President, or pitcher, or shortstop, or guitarist, or whatever. I defy you to name anyone who, at any time, has ever nominated Eddie Shlomboski for greatest rock guitarist if that wahoo was not also his own favorite guitarist. :- )
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On the Cy, we actually have a definition given to us by baseball, which is "that season's BEST pitcher."
Bill Clinton's lawyers would have an awesome party debating even the definition of "best."
Suppose that Roy Corcoran showed up and pitched for your local sophomore high school league. Would he not be the best pitcher in the league? What if he only pitched three innings the whole year -- the fifth inning of three different games? Wouldn't Roy still be the best pitcher in that league?
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We could even say that the best pitcher is the best pitcher, whether he throws well or not. Since this is a contrarian article, I could argue that Erik Bedard, when right, is the "best" pitcher in the league. He embarrasses hitters worse than Felix or Greinke do -- and runs streaks of 1-, 2-, 3-run starts by the dozens.
You didn't specify "best non-injured pitcher." :- ) Roy Corcoran, even if in the training room, would be "the best pitcher" in your local high school league.
But the award does say "that season's" best pitcher. This is a bit of a contradiction in metrics, since "best" can only either be defined at a given instant or "averaged" over a series of instants, but okay.
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So, no, you either have to (as usual) furnish your OWN definition of what the Cy represents, or you have to pick the pitcher who is the "best." That does not mean "highest Wins Above Replacement," doesn't mean lowest FIP, doesn't mean the most Runs Above Replacement.
It just means the best. The guy who could go out, on this Friday night, and have the highest chance of beating the Martians in one game for the planet. (Alternatively, the guy who had the best chance of getting one pre-assigned Martian out.)
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=== Largest Contribution ===
Six pitchers have run in a pack by themselves in the AL, in terms of most runs saved. Felix, Halladay, Sabathia, Verlander, Lester, and Greinke. There's a virtual tie for 2-6, but Greinke is a couple of strides ahead of the other five.
If you favor WAR, or RAR, or just width x height, Greinke has a small but clear margin over the next five hosses.
But the Cy doesn't go to the "largest contribution by" a pitcher. It's supposed to go to the "best" pitcher.
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Note the difference behind the phrases "most successful pitcher" and "best pitcher."
All of the analysis going on right now starts from the same false premise that the Cy should go to the pitcher with the best results. Where does the award say that? Where did we get our logic that the best pitcher always has the best results?
Then we'll turn right around, in October, and remind each other that winning the World Series does not imply that you necessarily were the best team ......
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=== Hardest-to-Hit ===
In terms of "best" pitcher, David Aardsma's not a bad choice for the 2009 Cy Young award. :- ) The man has allowed fewer runs per unit of time, than any of the starters. He's got a miniscule 0.43 homer rate. And you could argue him for MVP of his team -- had Aardsma not cemented the Mariner bullpen, they might have found themselves on a slip-n-slide again.
More seriously, Papelbon and Rivera are the "best" pitchers in the AL.
The Cy is not supposed to go to the "hottest" pitcher. There's an intrinsic "repeatable ability" concept behind the word "best."
Papelbon and Rivera both have 1+ ERA's -- as usual. They both are fanning more than 1 man per inning -- as usual.
When you think of a nightmare AB for (say) Adrian Beltre, Zack Greinke is plenty tough enough. But he ain't the loads that Rivera and Papelbon are.
If you want me to name the "best" pitcher in the AL, I give you Jonathan Papelbon's name, probably.
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=== Nominations Please ===
I happen to believe that Felix Hernandez is intrinsically a better pitcher than Zack Greinke. I doubt that the New York Yankees would prefer to face Felix, rather than Greinke, in a game 7 to go to the World Series.
The 2009 Cy Young race was characterized by a six-way tie for first.
Which of the six pitchers you want to argue a shade the better, or a shade the worse -- Dr. D could not possibly be less interested. Before roto drafts, I spend virtually zero time looking at the first round. Who cares whether Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay is 2% better than the other? They're both great. Move on.
But, if I were personally going to pick one "best" pitcher right now, I'd probably go with Halladay or Felix.
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=== King Felix ===
2009 became the season in which Felix started running his 2+ ERA's. Whether he actually is awarded a Cy Young or not, he is in fact a Cy Young starter. There are about half-a-dozen of them in the league, and the Mariners have one.
It's an awfully nice feeling -- the knowledge that in 20% of your games, the bad guys are going to be hanging on to the screen door by the edges of their fingernails.
A monster righthand Cy Young starter is the biggest single step you can make towards your next pennant. Let's hold on to the fantasy that King Felix might cut the M's a deal.
Cheers,
Dr D