Okay, the concern is that Lopez is going to spin a caccoon during the off-season and return as Orca? THAT is why there's so much discussion of moving him?
Nah. Not buying it for an instant. Just to update the fact sheet on Lopez:
He's only 25 freakin' years old at this point. In my entire baseball life I have *NEVER* heard it argued that a 26-year-old was entering the decline phase of ANY part of his game. Secondly, they banned steroids, and they test for them now. Third, if one actually inspects defensive records and hunts for defensive decline, the common drop-zone is about age 32, (which also happens to coincide with the common drop-zone for offensive decline). Where's the panic button on Jack Wilson?
Basically, there isn't the tiniest scrap of actual DATA that supports the notion that Lopez is going to fall off a defensive cliff for AT LEAST the next 5 seasons. In point of fact, the only actual statistical problem defensively for Lopez is his errors, yet it's the one least often mentioned, because errors have never been viewed as Lopez' big defensive headache PREVIOUSLY.
There's a favorite phrase that Doc uses occasionally ... "How would I know that I'm wrong?" Well, here's a simple tell for whether a projection argument for a given player is reasonable, or whether it is based on some sort of (subconcious) bias against said player. This could be applied to any player for any aspect of their game. The saw is this: "How many others players like this have I used this same argument about?" (one could tack on, " ... and been correct ...", if one wished).
How many 25-year-old 2Bs have been argued were competent defensively TODAY, but it was clear that they needed to be moved to a less demanding defensive position ASAP to avoid their impending defensive doom? Basically, I want to know who these defensive imploding MI comps are, because I've missed them.
Heck, Lopez played almost his entire career paired with the laziest SS in baseball. His 2009 season has been marked with having to team up with a host of new faces at short all season. UZR had him with a RangeRuns of -5.6 in 2008, but a +2.5 in 2009. Only reason he's running a negative UZR this season is because of his negative ErrorRuns saved for the season, (which could easily be explained by the revolving door of shortstops on the season). And yes, I've heard it argued on many occasions that lineup changes around a player can have an impact on that player's defensive results.
Me? The only 25-year-olds I can recall who were moved to "easier" defensive positions all started off as catchers, and the push was to get their bat in the lineup every day, OR they were simply unequivacally incompetent at their position, (see Upton, B.J.).
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