Kelly Johnson came in, hit up a storm, and I was thinking, (at the time), OH BOY! A good hitting, young middle infielder ... he could be the next Chipper ... a decades long All-Star, but at an even juicier position than 3B. But, like many players who start off big, the league adjusted, and he's struggled a bit, since.
I think long term, he's a .780ish bat with 10-HR power who will draw 50-60 walks. The problem is that his hitting profile has been so unstable, it's hard to get a clear read on what he "really" is. His age 25 season, ('07), he had 100 points of patience, and an ISO of .180. The next year, he had 62 points of patience, and an ISO of .159. This season, in sporadic play, 79 patience, and an ISO of 165, (and as noted, a BABIP that completely tanked). The picture just doesn't make much sense. His EYE ratio has gone 1.48 -- 2.17 -- 1.69 the past three seasons. I've gotten gun shy on "assuming" that massive plunging BABIPs are just luck -- (thank you Richie Sexson) -- but there's no real evidence he adopted a pepper swing, as he actually had a 10 point spike in XBH%.
Defensively, he's meh. Knowing how sketchy defensive stats are, my eyes on combined with my stat watching says pretty much the same thing ... he's decent, but never going to be spectacular. He was one of only 10 2Bs in baseball to reach 700 chances in 2008, (a full season) ... and only Kinsler did it in fewer innings. His fielding percentage is poor, but not killer bad. About half of all full-time 2Bs have similar error totals -- so he's bottom half in that regard.
Defensively, I'd put him in a similar class to Lopez. Offensively, he obviously has more patience than Lopez, (who doesn't?), but less power. He's NOT going to move into Safeco and start hitting 25 HRs, (but he might manage 40 doubles and double-digit triples).
As to why the Braves are wanting to move him? Two words - Prado and Infante. Prado is younger, looks just a bit better in the field, and appears to be as good, perhaps a hair better at the plate, and has more remaining upside potential. Basically, it's not that Kelly isn't worth having, it's that the Braves are currently blessed with MI depth.
Me? I think KJ would be a lateral move compared to Lopez ... but one that would appeal to lots of Seattle fans, who would see Johnson's lefty bat and patience as improvements, even if the aggregate isn't actually more productive. I think his 2008 UZR numbers almost certainly overstate his defensive shortcomings, (supported by 2009 numbers that show him dead-solid perfect average (0.0 UZR/150).
The danger with Johnson is that his BABIP plunge is symptomatic of something larger. I don't believe this to be true, but must recognize that it could be.
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