Follow On Nick Johnson
=== Snelling vs NJ ===
Q. The Nick Johnson question is very close to the Chris Snelling question: How much do you bet on a guy who is always injured? There's a difference, though.
Snelling has a career .302/.392/.456/.849 minor league line.
Johnson has a career .273/.402/.449/.849 MAJOR league line.
No matter what happens to Nick, if he's in the lineup he's not gonna Carl Everett you a season.
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A. I agree. We're not saying that Nick Johnson isn't a major league starter. He is.
If Nick Johnson had ONLY one problem OR the other -- if he were a .405 slugger who played 155 games, OR if he were Russ Branyan-legit but with health questions -- then fine.
What I don't like is that Johnson has both negatives simultaneously: a guy who's out of the lineup, and a guy who's no ball of fire when he's in the lineup. I don't like the crossing of these two factors. Especially for $7M.
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=== Slow OBP With No RBI ===
Q. Realize that the SLG statistic by definition doesn't account for Walks.
Factor in he was most of the time with a not very high scoring lineup and batting 2nd. The RBI total shouldn't be high. As for runs, it will be higher in 2k10 once he gets healthy..
Also nick johnson is minor league career obp is .446 which very few players in the minor league have that level of batting discipline. I don't know I think your extremely short selling Nick Johnson here...
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A. Well, there is an argument for Nick Johnson and it's precisely the one that you guys tossed out there: 100 walks in front of Russell Branyan and a second 30-homer man. (Where that 2nd guy comes from, if Johnson's the DH, I dunno.)
Take 30 seconds, and dwell on the year the Mariners stopped winning, 2004.
That was the year that the Mariners had two 1B/DH guys who drew walks, with no power and no speed -- John Olerud and Edgar Martinez in their crash years.
Oley walked 40 times in the first half, but had only 22 RBI (!) and Edgar drew walks but did little else. Both of those guys continued to get free passes, but they died at 1B -- slow runners in a weak lineup. The M's went from 93 wins to 63.
Now, granted, Nick Johnson will hit (somewhat) better than Olerud and Edgar did in 2004. But the point is, a slow DH whose whole game is drawing walks -- you get an awfully static offense that way.
Put Johnson in the Yankees' lineup and he'll score 100 runs, sure. He won't be coming to the Yankees' lineup. He'll be coming into a weak lineup.
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80 RBI per 162 games lifetime? That's pathetic for a first baseman. Sexson had 112. Matsui has 106. It's not the teams you play on that drive RBI: it's your SLG.
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=== O/U on the 2010 SLG ===
Q. So - 2009 was BY FAR his worst slugging year. You could bet on 150 for his first 3 years in the league and then around 200 for his next couple.
Would you bet that his slugging is gonna be 107 again, or that it's probably going to go up to at least what he was as a wet-behind-the-ears rook (again, assuming some skewed version of health)?
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A. Yeah. If you think that Nick Johnson is going to SLG .475, then he's a good player, no argument.
I ha'e mee doo'ts. Seriously. He's been playing in the National League. He has old player's skills. He'll probably play half the year with his body at less than 100%.
I think Nick Johnson has a great chance of coming to an AL pitcher's park and posting the .402 SLG that he did in 2002, or the .398 SLG that he did in 2005, or the .000 SLG that he did in 2007, or the .405 SLG that he did in 2009.
But sure. If you think he's going to hit 300/400/475, ya you betcha. I respect that.
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=== .400 OBP = Impact?, Dept. ===
Q. Also nick johnson is minor league career obp is .446 which very few players in the minor league have that level of batting discipline.
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A. "Very few" as in none. :- ) Johnson's walks are es-too-pendo.
Dr. D often chortles, with respect to the Ackleys of the world, "It's tough to have a .400 OBP and not be a star."
Nick Johnson pushes the lower bounds of value, given a .400 OBP:
1. Slow
2. No RBI
3. RBI position
If there's such a thing as a .400 OBP player who doesn't help the team much, it's John Olerud 2003 or Nick Johnson 2009.
But we see that .400 OBP and we think, ah, this must be a very desirable player.... :- )
I dunno. Remember that Nick Johnson is precisely the man who tests that ".400 OBP = impact" assumption.
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=== Picture's Worth 1,000 Words Dept. ===
Just for fun, check this first baseman's walks, speed, homers... and the W/L records of the teams he played on. .400-OBP first basemen with no homers are ideal guys to serve as the lone All-Star reps of last-place teams. :- )
To be fair, that particular first baseman had a little power for the era he played in, and was overall a more effective player than Nick Johnson. But y'know.
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Nick Johnson is not my kind of player. I hate slow 1B's who walk and don't give you RBI. But that's a personal bias.
Objectively speaking, Johnson's going to have a following in Seattle. 's OK with me.
Cheers,
Dr D