Bay to the Mets
Q. Is Bay's contract an overpay? What is the reasonable range of what Bay should make, from the highest bidder?
A. It certainly is not an "overpay" in terms of annual salary. I think that the fifth, vesting, year was a premium that the Mets paid to git r done.
I guess you could argue that the Mets like to throw marquee names at their fans, and that their valuation "doesn't count," at least not as much as ours do. ;- )
The problem is, though, the Mets did not offer Bay much more than the Boston Red Sox did. They tossed Bay an extra $1m per year, and grudgingly added a vesting year. The Mets bumped the Red Sox' offer by one notch.
In this specific case, you can't argue that the Mets' valuation doesn't count. Even if it didn't, the Red Sox' would.
By the way, Gammons' reported that Bay's money is backloaded, and therefore the dollars aren't worth as much because of Net Present Value. The Mets' offer is very similar to Boston's, plus the vesting year.
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Q. You're shooting yourself in the foot to give the 5th year to a 31-year-old guy who isn't even a superstar.
A. I agree, but the Mariners want their 3B problem fixed now. Tomorrow, they can worry about later.
2010's pennant is worth something, just like 2014's is. The Mariners want to win in 2010, so they're fixing 3B in 2010. The Mets want to win too. They're adding their cleanup hitter now.
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Q. What do you think Bay is worth.
A. What do *I* think?
Q. What do YOU think.
A. I think he's worth somewhere between $15m and $22m per season over the next two-three years. And pretty blinkin' risky after that. He might only be worth $12-15m the last few years
In 2009 and 2008, Fangraphs had Bay at $15.7 and $13.0m in value -- after the mammoth defensive penalties that amputated $6-8m per season from his value. His values would have been at $18m per season if you'd even moderated Bay's defensive penalties, as the Red Sox' sabermetricians have indicated that you should.
In 2006 and 2005, those values were $21.7 and $20.0m.
So all this talk about $16m being "an overpay" -- okay, it's more than you would pay. But we're talking about a profession in which the Lees, Sorianos and Hunters make $15-20m.
In terms of annual salary, that's what a cleanup hitter runs you. You don't get to bring in an ML All-Star to hit fourth for $11m. Sorry Charlie.
Hey, Ichiro makes $18m. He never thought of having Jason Bay's OPS+.
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Q. What about the fifth year?
A. As Cool Papa reminded, as Tango's site confirms, and as Roto takes as a given -- one guy who hits for 60 runs above RLP (like Bay does) is worth much more than three guys who hit for 20 runs above RLP. Yet, the industry does not pay annual salaries that reflect this.
The GM's pay the superstars in job security -- added years.
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The industry was unanimous about Bay: his skill set and profile deserved 4 years. They weren't kidding about it. When it came to the 5th year, teams moved on to other options.
The Mets won Bay by giving him 1 more year than he deserved (this 5th year being hedged a bit through vesting). That's the marketplace in America.
If the Mets wanted a championship cleanup hitter, they had to "overpay" him one vesting year. That's what an auction will do for you. It did the same to the M's on Chone Figgins.
It's called urgency to win. After sitting through the 2002-08 "quality experience at the ballpark" years, I find it refreshing.
Cheers,
Dr D