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The historical average for W's is $4.5 to $5.1 per win. It's fine to say "we would only want to pay $3.5m right now." The problem comes when we then take our personal opinion and call it correct.
$3.5 to $4.0m per win is 10 to 30% below average. Jason Bay was one of two (2) marquee hitters in the FA pool. You might prefer to underpay, but we don't get to redefine IMHO.
It's not often that there are only two hitting stars for an entire winter. If anything, market pressures should lead to higher sales prices, not lower ones.