Here's a couple Hardball times articles on pitcher usage:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-starting-rotat...
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/
A few quick lessons I take from these articles:
1) teams should expect to get substantial innings from not just 5, but rather more like 8 pitchers.
2) the pitchers who make up the 5th block of 32 starts are generally pretty bad (above 6 ERA), and this should be the baseline for comparing your own bottom tier starters.
3) depth is very important and it is a worthwhile question to consider how we think our 5-8 best starters stack up against the rest of the league.
4) My completely non-studied impression is that the mere fact that I can list the 5-8 starters for you. (Snell, Vargas, Olsen, French) and that all of these are folks we know are capable of non-embarrassing MLB performances is actually a really good sign heading in to the season. It's even more encouraging that I can give you a list without mentioning any minor leaguers with no MLB experience (by which I mean that our actual best 5-8 could be significantly better than what I listed).
Honestly, I'm super excited about Bedard. Suppose that the best case scenario occurs and he returns in mid May and pitches the rest of the season. We would then be in a position to earnestly claim that our team could have 3 of the top 5 pitchers in Cy Young voting. That's pretty exciting.
I should also add that it's pretty hard to question the aesthetic value of small ball, defense and pitching. Win or lose, the 2010 M's might well be the most exciting team in the last decade.
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