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If one assumes significant plusses from Felix and Lee -- and an aggregate zero from every other pitcher combined, it's a winning season.
Of course, one of the variables missing is the 'scrub' replacements -- the Woodward, Hall, Quiroz, Shelton, Burke (etc.) random few dozen PAs (each) from emergency fill-ins, failed call-ups, etc.  And I'm grossly oversimplifying the pitching reality in my above paragraph.
But, all-in-all, I'd say Matt has done a very solid analytical job w/o a lot of homerism entering the picture.  Well done.  In the end, I would expect a projection of 85-ish wins from the current roster - which gives it the position to surprise (and win), or disappoint and slip to sub-.500, (depending on how things break). 
Who knows?  A Lopez/Kotchman++ for A.Gone/Tui in mid-season could change things the way Oakland used to bulk up for the dog days.