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Bringing up Endy is a nice point.  So - how CAN you identify a player who is "just" hot -- compared to one that has improved something?  Well, Endy was clearly hot in April - and cooled back down to career standards before losing his leg.
Endy - in 2009 - was a 31 year old hitter with about 2300 PAs and a .270/.311/.369/.680 line for his career.  Fifteen games in he was hitting: .351/.422/.421/.843 -- and would finish April at: .305/.374/.354/.727 (with a .343 BABIP - compared to his career .294.
There were two major skews for Endy.  His average was WAY above normal - and his walk rate was up considerably.  (Career 41 points of patience was showing 69 points of patience for all of April.  His final patience score would be 55).  Basically, his BB% jumped from 5.7% to 7.7% for 2009.  Only once in his career had it been above 6.  After April, his average (and BABIP) returned to normal, (.264 / .283 in May).  I'll ignore the 30 PAs in June.
Kotchman - on the other hand - is a 27-year-old with 1900 major league PAs.  His career line: .269/.337/.406 (.742) entering 2009.
Fifteen games in, he's hitting: .261/.340/.543/.883 -- with a .225 BABIP.
His average is DOWN.  His patience (normally 68) is up a bit (79).
His K and BB numbers are a tad better than normal - but he's always had a solid K/BB ratio with few Ks.
In truth - there is only one stat where he's CLEARLY in new territory -- power.  His ISO at the moment is .283!!!  His career is .141.  His career high (in his .840 season), it was only .172.
Is it even POSSIBLE for a guy with a .140 ISO at age 27 to suddenly develop 200 level power?!?  Well this guy named Raul Ibanez didn't blossom until age 29.  But, hey, that was probably just a fluke - where a guy got helped out a lot by a friendly park.  But, I digress.
In seriousness, Kotchman will NOT be posting a 283 ISO.  That's not gonna happen any more than Endy was going to keep hitting .350. 
But, Kotchman has actually been UN-lucky - in that his BABIP is 50 points BELOW his career BABIP.  In truth, a .275 BABIP is a bit on the low side to begin with.  But, look at his BABIP for each team he STARTED the year with for the past 3 seasons:
.305 ... .279 ... .292
And what about the two teams he FINISHED the year with in '08 and '09?
.252 ... .250
His BABIP during his 3 seasons of auditioning (about 350 PAs) was .227.
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I think what really gets to me is that one of the players mentioned as a better option is, Carlos Pena.  Pena - a 32-year-old guy has a career 126 OPS+ *TODAY*.  But, after his age 28 season, his career OPS+ was 110.  Pena was a .250/.330/.450 guy all the way through 2007.  What is he NOW?  He's a .250/.330/.500 hitter. 
The part with Kotchman that baffles me - is that he's perceived as a completely finished, immutable product - *AS IF* he's a 33-year-old guy on the downside of his career.
He's a 27-year-old former phenom - who to date has had *ONE* uninterupted season of being a full-time 1B for a team -- and hit .840 during that one season. 
Hey - I'm down on Fister - but I've gotta at least admit that he's effectively a 26-year-old rookie -- so he might not be done cooking.  My problem with Fister is he hasn't shown he can prevent hits at ANY level *AND* he didn't make it to the majors until 26.  Kotchman made it at 22 - stuck at 24. 
Maybe it's because Seattle's only experience with prospects in the last decade that is messing things up.  Seattle hasn't SEEN a guy come in with X-level production and then move to Y and then Z level production.  The closest thing they've had is Lopez - who is almost universally viewed as a finished product as of age 24. 
I actually got to watch a whole slew of prospects come up - take their lumps - adjust - and become solid players.  Not talking just Chipper and Andruw.  But Marcus Giles - Furcal - DeRosa - LaRoche - Francoeur - Kelly Johnson.  They've had a dozen or more DIFFERENT career paths from prospects.  Seattle's had two -- abject failure or Hall of Famer.  Everyone else was an import.
How many blossoming 27-year-olds have Seattle fans gotten to SEE over the past decade - regardless of whether home grown or imported? 
I think what really baffles me is the twisted (IMO) perception:
Kotchman is hopeless - because, while he had ability at age 24 - he lost it - therefore, he'll suck forever. 
With Fister - he never HAD great ability until last season - (and sucked before that) - so, therefore, he will be great and can only get better from here on out.
But - in the end - I'm convinced Vargas heads to the pen - (which is absent any LHPs at the moment).  I still believe that by the time Bedard is ready, Fister will have pitched himself back to AAA.