The Unified Theory of LAAA Dynasty & Z's Apparent Antidote
Justin and G's comments dovetail right with what I have been concluding:
1. Arlington ruins pitchers
2. Safeco ruins non-extraordinary RH hitters
3. A's never have enough money
4. LAAA suffers from no particular disability
THEREFORE, Mike Scioscia waltzes into the Hall of Fame on the backs of crippled foes who have never quite woken up to what is holding them back (overstatement for effect -- Scioscia is good).
Obviously, Texas has indeed begun to stockpile pitching from within, and it is paying off. But . . . Orel Hershiser was the pitching coach there and he made it clear -- it will always be a tough place to pitch, period. Even for someone as dominant as Cliff Lee.
Safeco, on the other hand, does not cripple all hitters, only certain ones. And it seems to me that Z & Crew have picked up on the learning curve as to their ballpark. This is just my analysis of what they seem to be up to:
1. Don't waste time with RH hitters at non-glove positions unless it's Edgar-class or better. Adrian Beltre is a good hitter, but he's a glove-first guy at the Safe. The list goes on: Lopez, Sexson, (yikes!) Cirillio.
So look at what they're building for the 2012 lineup:
S: Smoak, Franklin, Figgins
LH: Ichiro, Ackley, Saunders, probably the DH
RH: Guti, Moore
Of the hitters on the way up, only Poythress and Chavez qualify as RH guys in non-glove positions (I know Wilson and Halman have their fans, but not me). Both are good, but not being counted on to be MLB mainstays -- possibly trade bait. Tui and Triunfel are holdovers from the BB era, and are looking fairly iffy anyway. The guys with a chance to have an impact are LH (Choi, Raben, Mangini, Seager, Tenbrink, Morban) or S (Franklin, Littlewood, Noriega)
The only highly drafted RH the last two drafts were Baron (a glove guy at C) and Poythress (potentially strong enough and with enough ability to hit to right to overcome Safeco), and I expect it will stay that way. If I'm getting it right, no RH hitters at non-glove positions in the 2010 draft until the 8th round.
2. You can get away with lots of "filler" in BOR and middle bullpen spots. Vargas and Fister won the auditions and fit just fine into the mix. If they falter, bring in the next guy off the list. David Pauley, come on down! Safeco and defense provides margin of error and confidence. No major resources (money or prospects) invested in Batista- or HoRam-types.
3. Low-octane offense (Safeco-style) means close, low-scoring affairs -- therefore, high-leverage bullpen aces needed. This hasn't worked out -- yet. But Morrow-for-League was clearly this philosophy. The 8th-inning death ray is worth a No. 3 starter.
Josh Lueke is a whole kettle of fish sunk into a murky swamp covered in fog (see Baker today -- hooboy! yuck!), BUT, at the end of the article, Z says essentially "he's ours and unless he screws up again he's pitching for us." Targeting Lueke, switching Cortes to the pen -- same deal. In other words, "we can mix-and-match our rotation with Civics, but we need a few BMWs in the bullpen." Even spending a 7th-round pick on a LH reliever -- the "loopy LOOGY" Brian Moran, who's climbed all the way to AA just a year out of college with his unhittable slop.
The bottom fell out of '10 when the bullpen gave away the slim margin of error, but it does seem that they are trying to rectify that.
We'll see where it goes, but it does seem like they have a plan, and are adjusting it as they learn more.