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Not sure what the odds are, but presuming that Franklin continues to hit well -- not necessarily mash -- then it's simply the Mariners' choice whether to go the AA-AAA-cup-of-coffee schedule next year.
If Franklin continues to hit, and he probably will, there's nothing weird at all about the idea of Franklin starting with the M's on Opening Day 2012. The shortstop doesn't have to hit right away.
Gauging the odds is mostly a question of gauging the Mariners' intent, not Franklin's ability. Franklin probably does have the ability to pencil in a 2012 job.