San-Man on Adam Dunn
San-Man with a great post on Dunn's forward projection. He points out several things that I hadn't noticed (deep gasp from crowd ensues).
Likely good investment for two years - but a couple of less-than-ideal years mixed in.
One of the keys when speaking of player profiles and such is that the physical makeup of a player plays a MAJOR role in their longevity. *BIG* guys tend to wear down below the waist - the knees go, (the lower back), hammies, groin pulls, etc.
One of the ugliest parts of trying to comp Dunn is while his bbref comp lists is littered with guys who had strange (or ugly) career tails.
Sandy goes on to note that Dunn's comps persisted well. Here's the table, which shows how each player did AFTER age 30. Recap:
- Jose Canseco, 6 years after age 30 ... OPS+ of 121 during those 6 years
- Rocky Colavito, 4 years x 121 OPS+
- Harmon Killebrew, 9 years x 141
- Sammy Sosa, 7 years x 142
- Reggie Jackson, 11 years x 128
- Darryl Strawbery, 7 years x 113
- Ralph Kiner, 2 years x 119
- Jim Thome, 9 years x 148 (and still playing)
- Barry Bonds, 12 years x 203 (!)
- Boog Powell, 5 years x 126
I had no idea that Dunn's comps had such spectacular career arcs. You wouldn't see a much better table comp'ing Griffey, or ARod, or anybody.
From age 31, Dunn's b-ref.com comps played an average of seven (7) more years at an OPS+ of 144. That's a whale of a strong arc after 30.
Looking only at the b-ref.com players, you'd think it was impossible for Dunn to have a poor Y3.
You can say "well, Canseco and Bonds and Sosa were suspect" but the fact remains, those are 10 comps who were selected on a completely arbitrary basis. Reggie, and Thome, and Killebrew -- and Dunn! -- needed no roids to hit 440-footers.
Without doubt, the White Sox considered these kinds of tables when forking over the $56M.
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Malcontent, in the comments, noted that Dunn's EYE ratio was down in 2010. We followed on with the observation that --- > so were his numbers vs LHP's.
This 2H fade of Dunn's is worrying. It can't be minimized. A roto owner will take Dunn's 2H 2010, and his LHP and EYE, into consideration for 2011 ---- > and will pay a few $ less for Dunn.
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Although Sandy follows with
But - there IS a commonality for his comps - (the ones who quit early AND the ones who played many more years). Almost every one had at least one bad year by age 34. (Age 34 is a really popular age to miss a lot of time and/or lose 200 points off the OPS). *BUT*, the guys that kept playing also tended to bounce back.
You see, it's not the ABILITY that typically vanishes overnight (though there are exceptions - as evidenced by the Richie Sexson train wreck). The reality is that the "big" guys tend to hit injury walls -- where the acute injuries become chronic. In the steroid era - things changed - because the chronic injuries vanished for many thanks to the chemsitry set.
Agree. You will see up and down years -- but the natural power and skill set persists. In fact, for Dunn to finally have a bit of a down year (actually a down 2H) is expected: it's the first one he's had.
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