POTD Danny Hultzen, LHP - Risk/Reward
Q. So why wasn't everybody all over him?
A. Apparently because the light bulbs are not on, regarding Z-Axis Lefties.
All people figured was, "He's a 90 mph lefty with a polished game," like he's a decent #3 SP, which was what McNamara put into the postdraft quotes. A lot of people (not including the M's) must not have perceived the high-strikeout guarantee that you can get with 90 mph.
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Q. Is Cole Hamels good enough to take with the #1 pick?
A. YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!
High picks are not about comparing ceilings. They are about comparing floors.
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Look, the Mariners don't just draft this year. They drafted last year, and they'll draft next year. What happens if you get a Dustin Ackley and a Cole Hamels and a Ricky Weeks and a Prince Fielder and a Steve Braun every year? What difference does it make HOW great they are? It doesn't.
The Mariners drafted for ceilings all through the 1980's and 1990's and came up with squat.
In roto or in real baseball, just get a real good player with every high pick (and FA contract) and you win.
It isn't about whether Danny Hultzen is a shade the better, or a shade the worse, than some other high pick. It's about getting an impact #1, five years in a row.
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Q. How's his motion?
A. Just quickly:
- Very simple, compact, and repeatable
- Love the "flamingo crouch" over the ball at the top - head forward, Big Unit did this
- Not especially graceful (often implies command issues, but not here)
- Don't like front knee or left elbow much
- Requires little apparent effort - slinging darts at a dartboard (ergo, command)
- Excellent starter's rhythm
- Long arms, natural (biological) leverage
- Superb decel, a mirror image of Randy Johnson's
- Sidearm, seems to hide ball well, a la Sid Fernandez, George Sherrill
His motion is neither a plus nor a minus for me. The important thing is that it's minimum effort, it's a starter's rhythm, and the command Q's I would have, are already answered.
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Q. Injury risk?
A. Taro might not care for his elbow position, though it doesn't bother me too much.
He's a LHP with a sidearm motion, a Billy Beane pitcher with great command, and he's ready for the majors now. Overall he's way ahead of the curve.
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Will cheerfully admit that Dallas Braden, who had the high elbow, just came down with the shoulder injury that people associate with the elbow. Of course, James would immediately point out that Braden was a low-velocity, low-K pitcher.
Cole Hamels' elbow looks about as high as Danny Hultzen's is.
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