Colby Rasmus Deal ... E don't = MC2 for SSI
Q. Leaving us where?
A. Hey, let's say you believe in Colby Rasmus, and think you can get him back onto a Grady Sizemore track before too long.
You're still giving up -- in talent wattage -- Erik Bedard, Brandon League, David Pauley, and change to get there. You going to do that?
It could work out well provided that Rasmus gets back on track and gives you a near-Smoak bat from CF, for a couple of years.
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But in my view, Capt Jack wisely stepped around a chance to pay top dollar for Rasmus' best-case scenario.
Supposing that a guy has a 20% chance to star, a 60% chance to be okay, and a 20% chance to Figgins. Are you going to pay for the star? That, herr Einstein, is called Return On Investment analysis. You use it every time you pay $0 for a dice roll on that morning's SSI article.
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Suppose that Rasmus not only continues his decline from his current 4.8 RC/27 status ... but that the AL transition hurts him? And/or, suppose that Safeco Field exacerbates his 150 strikeout rate? In my view, there was a real Figgins disaster scenario here in Safeco, in the AL.
That Rasmus has been trending down, for an identifiable and scary reason, is a given. The only question is whether the NL-AL transition could add weight to a balloon that is losing altitude, and whether Safeco Field could termite-attack his already-unbalanced mind.
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Hey, nobody has the "correct" forward projection for Rasmus, because there isn't one. What was Adrian Beltre's "correct" forward projection at age 24? At age 28? ...maybe the change of scenery, the getting away from Tony Larussa, is the key factor here.
You're bullish, and you want to push in all our trade chips (Erikkkk, League etc) then provided that the Cards were among Bedard's fans, then you coulda bid and maybe taken the Jays' place at equal value.
My bottom line: if Erikkk and Brandon League are going out, I'd like make it part of a blockbuster that reels in a guy you know will love you back. Because I'm thinkin' Erikkk will give us a whale of a deal in 2012.
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Or not,
Dr D