Ichiro's Poor 2011: Root Causes
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=== Root Causes ===
Take two copies of Timothy Gallwey and call me in the morning. Or study O Sensei's teachings, grasshopper. Or ask Vince Lombardi. All roads lead to Rome.
Lack of internal enthusiasm leads to ---> lack of external enthusiasm. Ichiro's season started off with a catastrophe in Japan and was quickly followed by a truly miserable, Deadball-era offensive performance around him.
... Samir Nasri didn't look too enthused in his final Arsenal game, either, being the only star having to play with ten reserves.
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Guess what? The drive for 200 hits has caught Ichiro's interest, and whattaya know, he's 19-for-50 (.380) the last two weeks and is driving the ball hard into the gaps again.
SSI confidently expects Ichiro to rip away at a .350+ pace the rest of the month.
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Most observers have taken the cynical view: Ichiro is swinging softly "because he knows he can't get around on a fastball any more."
aaaaaarrrrghhhh. It says here that when Ichiro really can't hit any more -- when Ichiro's opinion is that the fastballs are too quick for him -- he will return to his 2001 defensive mode: slapping the ball through the left side.
This has been Ichiro's life-long response to any "overmatch" situation: wait on the ball and whack it hard to LF. In 1999-2002, Ichiro was infamous with the scouts for this: "He does that to keep his average over .320," they'd say. "Once his average is back up, he'll start pulling the ball again."
What he's actually doing in 2011 is grounding out to the right side, pulling the ball too much. Here the last 10 days, as he's come alive, Ichiro has smoked a number of hot shots over the SS's head.
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=== Check Your Bookie, Dept. ===
There are 10,000 confusing factors in a chess position, and the master's job is to point his finger at one factor and say, "THAT one."
You could argue Ichiro's 2012 a thousand ways, both UP and DWN. (My favorite argument DWN would be Ichiro's long swing.)
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For me the single over-arc'ing factor, the one louder than the others, is this --- > 37-38 is young for a HOF leadoff hitter. That is the historical perspective, and it's the 30,000-foot view here.
You wouldn't expect Ichiro to be done now, so if you're confused about whether he is, then your default assumption is ... what?
Corollary 1: Ichiro is lighter, and fitter, even than Lofton, Raines, Molitor, or Biggio. All those guys were quality players at 39-40, and Ichiro is small compared to any of them.
Corollary 2: Ichiro's intent is to play until he's 50.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
I don't have a lot of doubt that Ichiro will hit .320 in 2012. Hey, amigo: do you have a lot of doubt that he'll hit .320 this September?!
It's not a slam dunk: next year's AL-only roto draft, you might want to drop Ichiro to the 3rd or 4th round or something. Maybe Ichiro really can't start attacking the ball like he did up through 2010 -- maybe he really can't snap the bat and the back shoulder through any more. I don't know why that would be, but it's possible.
Ichiro's thinking that he'll play 10-15 more years, not 1 more year. I know that the 2011 season has been maddening, but the facts are the facts. At 38, Ichiro's comps had a lot of years left.
Figure 3:1 odds-on that Ichiro is going to have a good season in 2012 -- say, +20 to +30 runs, maybe touching +40 with defense and baserunning. In view of his comps, that's probably conservative.
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=== 2013f Contract Extension?, Dept. ===
My man Geoff Baker has been crusading against the idea of giving Ichiro big money for his age-39 seasons and beyond.
If Geoffy ever finds this grid, he won't need anything else. :- ) It's rare indeed for a player to post a +4 win season at age 38 and beyond.
The HOF leadoff hitters -- Rickey, Lofton, etc -- tended to give you +2 win seasons at ages 38, 39, and 40. You could figure Ichiro for another +1 win defensively, but that's going to be about it for reasonable projection.
The M's are looking at +20, +25 runs from Ichiro next year, another +10 on defense, which makes him a very good player. But scenarios of playing until he's 50 will hopefully not involve 20% of the ballclub's payroll.
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BABVA,
Dr D