POTD Jaso as Catcher - QRC
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=== Quick Report Card ===
Matthew of LL pointed out that Jaso's defensive numbers (1) don't look too good, and (2) don't cost his teams all that many runs, relative to other catchers. He also, wisely, cautioned us not to sell them too hard, and not just because of "sample size" (sigh) factors.
Dr. D had cried bloody murder on Chris Gimenez, as early as May. The 2011 Mariners indeed wound up 4-16 in Gimenez' starts. SSI dreamily fantasized that Josh Bard's callup had correlated with the SSI whining about Gimenez... at a CORR of 0.20, anyway ...
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Does Dr. D fear the same about John Jaso, you ask. He does not, no.
The superficial reason is that John Jaso's CERA has not been all that much higher than his ballclub's in general. By "not all that much higher," Dr. D means that it has been lower.
| 2010 | |
| Jaso | 3.87 |
| Shoppach | 4.35 |
| RAYS | 3.78 |
x
| 2011 | |
| Jaso | 3.37 (!) |
| Shoppach | 3.77 |
| RAYS | 3.58 |
I don't say that these CERA's are the gospel truth, but here is a summary that is. /begin gospel truth
John Jaso just caught 200 games -- for a contender, now, against the Red Sox and Yankees -- and got MLB(TM) results out of it.
Chris Gimenez has backed up, in the majors, for a few years, and had issues. The two catchers' results are not comparable. /gospel truth
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There's a subtler reason that SSI is gingerly confident that Jaso is an okay defender. That is, his pitcher-partners during the 2011 season.
In 2011, Joe Maddon started the year by mixing-and-matching the two catchers randomly. For four trips through the rotation, twenty games, you had no way to predict which catcher would team with which Tampa Bay pitcher. Jaso caught games 1, 4, and 5 the first trip through, but then the next trip, Shoppach caught 1, 2, and 4. The third trip, Jaso caught 2 and 4. And the fourth trip through, Jaso caught 3 and 4.
But, suddenly, the partners jelled. Jaso began catching David Price, and Jaso caught Price's next 11 games, almost up to the All-Star break. Do you think that Felix Hernandez was going to select Chris Gimenez as his personal catcher? Price did, though. Select Jaso the bat-first catcher, that is.
James Shields chose Kelly Shoppach, but guess who else Jaso wound up catching all the time? The RHP rookie Jeremy Hellickson. Beginning in May, Jaso caught 10 of 11 Hellickson starts. When you consider that Kelly Shoppach is supposed to be an MLB(TM) professional veteran catcher, it's interesting that "bat-only" Jaso was selected to teach Jeremy Hellickson about MLB pitch sequences.
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Jaso's chance of winning a Gold Glove in the American League may be the same as Charlie Whitehurst's, but ... what's the bottom line here?
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