POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - WBC Glory
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Q. Baseball Prospectus, in this article, interprets Iwakuma as being an 89-mph guy, with 4 lame pitches, but a forkball that comes up to average ML quality. True?
A. WAY off the mark.
In the F/X Interpretation Apple Bowl, I'll take SSI over BP, thanks. In part because SSI has a video footage coordinator on defense.
But if it's ML scouting you want, here is Orel Hershiser judging Iwakuma's pitches. Orel flatly states that Iwakuma "could play in the majors in a heartbeat" and is enthused about all of Iwakuma's tools:
Hisashi Iwakuma is a complete pitcher. He doesn't have Darvish's 96 mph fastball, he's more around 91-92, but he has five exceptional pitches. He's got the short breaking ball with the slider,* a tight, locating curveball, a nice, solid changeup, a lively fastball and a great forkball. He was one of the most impressive pitchers in the tournament ... he could play in the majors in a heartbeat.
*As opposed to Darvish's, which tends to be thrown loopy and for a called ball. - jjc.
I agree with Orel, and would even if Iwakuma were about to become an Oakland Athletic, except that I see Iwakuma as a 4-pitch guy, not a 5-pitch guy. Will explain exactly why Orel is right, and BP is wrong, in a second.
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For those who want another 'net rat's take based strictly on the F/X alphanumerics (and no video), here is one from Athletics' Nation last year.
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Q. In a nutshell, what is Iwakuma's repertoire?
A. Average-solid 89-92 fastball, straight, but with life and with plus-plus command -- think Jered Weaver's approach, maybe not quite.
Excellent (plus) shuuto with late, hard bite (think Steve Delabar's "High School Gyroball").
80 mph slider thrown in the strike zone. And a Sasaki-class forkball.
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Q. C'mon. He'd be a big star if he had four pitches like that.
A. Which he is.
In the 2009 WBC, Japan chose Iwakuma over Yu Darvish for the death-match game with Korea. After Darvish and Dice-K, probably Iwakuma and Uehara have been the next two most famous recent SP's in Japan. (As with all this stuff, Taro and IceX can correct me where I'm wrong.)
After Billy Beane won the bidding last year, Iwakuma sought $12-15M per season on top of the posting fee, which was another $4-5M per year. In 2011, Iwakuma and his agent saw him as one of the 10-15 best pitchers in the world. You can make the argument for that.
Granted, he's come down off that as he changed agents. But Iwakuma is still a big-ticket free agent.
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