Tom Willhelmsen RP - SP, part 2
This is part B. Part A can be found here.
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(continued) Q. Where is he on the starter's rhythm spectrum?
A. Here, check this key aspect of his mechanics:
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He steps lightly. He carries his weight high, and loosely. He's not "running down the mound" (Orel Hersisher). He's smooth, not explosive.
You can see that for yourself, can't you?
There's every chance in the world this guy could be a Grade A starter. Check that: if he executed the pitches that he did on Avila, he WOULD BE a grade A starter.
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Q. How are Feliz, Bard, and Sale doing?
A. They're adjusting, obviously. While AL batters are suffering. Feliz' ERA is 2.70, and he's on pace for 4.0 WAR. He had 1.0 WAR last year in 62 IP out of the bullpen. Okay, they're leveraged innings: multiply it by 2x and what is 1 times 2?
Daniel Bard fired a gem at the Rays on April 16, and then the Sox moved him back to the pen, apparently. Here's a discussion of his situation. I trust that nobody in Seattle would be debating Tom Wilhelmsen's control. Well, at this point...
Sale, you might have had a chance to observe against the Mariners. He's also running a 10+ strikeout rate. Why waste a chance at a star rotation piece?
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Q. Those teams all converted those guys in the offseason.
A. That's one way to do it.
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Q. Wilhelmsen was wild in 2011 when they tried him for a couple months in the AA rotation.
A. And he was lousy for the M's until his plateau leap last August. We're talking about the Tom Wilhelmsen who figured the game out in August 2011.
This guy was a bartender until just recently. Twelve disappointing starts in AA could be the end of the discussion for some people, but they'd better hope that the Angels don't pick him up and put him in the rotation.
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Kelvim Escobar was a guy who also bounced between the rotation and pen. Perhaps the Jays should have considered his failed AA season, in 1997, the end of the discussion and kept him in the pen?
Pedro Martinez, yes that Pedro, was broken into the bigs as a reliever, and had wildness issues off and on. In his rook year with the Dodgers, he walked 5 per game out of the pen. They powerflushed him to Montreal.
Derek Lowe was a 6'6" reliever who was somewhat miscast in the pen. The Red Sox finally let him start, put that long-stroking V8 engine into the rotation, and bang. 21-8, 2.58 first year, and .... 139 wins the next 9 years.
Another guy who started some in the minors, who was in the pen in his early years, and converted to starting: Curt Schilling. How many Curt Schillings could you find in baseball history?
Dave Stewart? Jeff Fassero? Sam McDowell? Johann Santana?
That's one of the great ways to manufacture 4.0, 5.0-WAR players. ID relievers who are miscast.
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Q. The M's need Wilhelmsen in the bullpen right now.
A. Indeed they do.
If it's me, I construct a position in which the Mariners don't need him in the bullpen. It's not like Wilhelmsen is the closer.
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Q. The M's have four young pups waiting for their shot, and Vargas and Felix.
A. Supposing that the M's establish a new Ogando or Pineda in the 2nd half of the season, by letting Wilhelmsen not only perform brilliantly -- but perform brilliantly in an exciting way. What can you trade a guy like that for?
Like for Mike, er, Giancarlo Stanton.
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Q. You really expect they'll do that?
A. Of course not. The baseball way is, sensibly enough, "we've tried him both ways, right now he's throwing great, don't fix what ain't broken." Baseball is a nervous affair, and it's hard to swap success for a chance at failure.
But I can tell you this with the inexorable certainty of a Kyle Seager or Michael Pineda prognosis: Tom Wilhelmsen is a starting pitcher. Just name me some other relief ace, his height, his gliding short-stride motion, his overhand power arsenal. No way.
In 1992, they used to say that Ken Griffey Jr. in the Kingdome was like keeping the Hope Diamond in a Mason lodge. Keeping Tom Wilhelmsen in the rotation? Well, you know the rest.
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Q. I just like Capt. Insano as a reliever. Whatcha got for me?
A. He's got 11 strikeouts per nine innings, 2 walks per nine, and a 1.17 FIP-edited ERA (!). His 2.25 ERA is bloated by an unlucky BABIP.
His starter's arm may allow the Scot Shields 80-100 IP per year, and he's on pace for 3.5 WAR out of the pen (!!).
The M's have things the right way, a good reliever pitching the easy clean 9ths and a great one pitching the 8th and waiting to close.
If you like Wilhelmsen in the pen, well, the M's have scored the dream closer-in-waiting that every team covets. Guess Capps and Pryor will have to take the 7th.
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BABVA,
Dr D