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Taro's picture

BABIP is pretty flukish on a year-to-year basis, much less month-to-month. Its likely Ichiro's true-talent BABIP has declined given the change in skillset (particularly IH%), but unlikely that it declined to the level it did last year overall.
I did an analysis of Griffey's outcomes a couple years back and concluded that his BABIP was only 10-15 points 'unlucky' based on a career BABIP outcomes (probably within the range of physical decline). His BABIP was not that unlucky considering low LD, pop ups, etc.
With Ichiro's current outcomes we'd be talking 50+ points below his career rate outcomes, at which point we'd be talking extreme physical decline.

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