M's 3, Tigers 2 - Batting Orders continued
Ichiro caught this one.
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=== Ichiro from leadoff to #3 ===
We wrote an article or ten this winter and spring, gingerly predicting that Ichiro would benefit from having men on base in front of him. He seems to feel more responsibility to the team when hitting in the middle of rallies, and less responsibility toward his 200-hit geas.
Ichiro had 0.2 WAR at the finish of the 2011 season; he's got 1.3 WAR so far this season, with 19% of the schedule completed, leaving him on pace for 6.8 WAR. He is totally rejuvenated - Dr. Grumpy's suggestion that Ichiro's digestive health sapped him in 2011 makes sense, as always. If you watched highlights from various seasons during his career you wouldn't be able to tell him now from any other year, except he's hitting the ball in the air more.
It's possible that Ichiro is playing so well because the team is better, as opposed to his hitting in the middle of rallies. It's possible that he's playing well 70% because of his batting order slot, and 30% because the offense is better. Ichiro himself went home and thought about the #3 slot all winter, going so far as to try to change his swing. It's no accident that his flyball ratio is way up.
You might think that it's better not to overemphasize batting order; that's fine. You can't reasonably scoff at the idea that batting orders matter: Ichiro thinks it matters, a ton. Ichiro is as smart as you are, whoever you are, up to and including James and Hawking*, and as a completely separate issue, he knows hitting better than you do, up to and including Ted Williams. If THAT guy thinks batting order is a huge deal, we might want to re-think. Have you been in a batting order?
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If you were not biased against the idea that batting order matters -- to the players -- you would allow that this one move alone seems to have hit the WAR cash register to the tune of 50, 60 runs. Think about it for a second. Just take a breath, and suppose that is what happened - that a lineup move is the main reason that Ichiro went from replacement level player back to HOF level.
What would you do next, if you believed that?
You would look for other ways to improve players with this strategy.
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