Red Shifting Up 100%
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Shifting that puts lefty hitters' bank accounts into the red, that is.
Does it seem to you that the Mariners have seen a lot of shifting? They have. John Dewan is the guy I listen to the most about defensive stats in baseball, but don't let that sour you on him. He's the author of The Fielding Bible, and provides interactive updates on his work at BJOL. This week his article is titled "Shifty Business."
He finds that in 2010 and 2011, MLB teams deployed the shift about 1,900 times per season. In 2012, however, there has been a Cambrian Explosion of lefty-shifting -- teams are on pace to shift 3,800 times, and the rate is accelerating.
Dewan gives the following teams as the ones that shift the most so far in 2012:
Top 10 Most Shifting Teams in 2012
| Team | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Projected 2012 Total |
| Rays | 221 | 216 | 171 | 695 |
| Orioles | 103 | 75 | 95 | 386 |
| Indians | 130 | 148 | 81 | 342 |
| Blue Jays | 79 | 117 | 71 | 288 |
| Royals | 46 | 70 | 55 | 242 |
| Yankees | 56 | 53 | 54 | 228 |
| Athletics | 35 | 69 | 53 | 215 |
| Brewers | 22 | 170 | 46 | 194 |
| Red Sox | 87 | 41 | 42 | 177 |
| Rangers | 49 | 72 | 39 | 158 |
Dewan notes also that "many of these teams are doubling and tripling" their shift rate, "a couple even more."
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=== Dr's Diagnoses ===
(1) We'll leave you to count the number of these teams that are from the American League. It says here that they are doing it out of sheer terror and self-defense ... Ortiz, Granderson, Teixeira, Hamilton, A-Gone, etc. etc. In my view it's a natural evolution of the game becoming better and better, like "dime" secondaries in the NFL.
Of course, some of it is due to better fielding data.
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(2) Bill James, being skeptical that the shift helps a defense, consistently debates Dewan on this point. He believes that a defense gives back a lot with the shift, such as with popups dropping foul and base hits dropping into weird places.
So if you hate seeing the M's flotilla of lefty battleships shifted, take consolation in the next "free AB" they get when a ball lands on the grass on the right side...
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(3) What really gets me about the shift is not the three infielders on one side. It's how deep the 2B can play, and still throw the runner out. The shortstop's positioning is really just to support that "deep safety" strategy on the part of the second baseman. If Ortiz hits a groundball here, he's out.
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(4) Personally I see the shift as the natural exploitation of an unhealthy and unnatural attitude on the part of the hitters: that taking a free single (via the bunt) is a humiliation.
It's hard to imagine the shift being anywhere near this popular in Japan. You'd assume that offensive players would be expected to do what's best for the team, and to accept the free base hit that's being offered to the pitcher's right.
It is weird, weird, weird that a single would be considered a defeat for the batter. Suppose you could lay it down even 75% of the time. That's a .750/.750/.750 batting line. A 1.500 OPS at-bat is a defeat? Slap me silly, you only need to do it 50% of the time to create a 1.000 OPS situation.
The MLB(TM) attitude about An RBI Man(TM) bunting for hits is an artificial construct, an affectation, and it is based on a good solid lie. It's comparable to an NBA center who thinks that practicing free throws is wussy. He deserves what he gets.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
The shift will never be effective, long-term, against Kyle Seager or Dustin Ackley; you wonder how much of this correlates with their being from such a fundamentally sound NCAA program, kind of like Nick Collison (from Kansas) still being in the NBA. Now, Mike Carp and Justin Smoak, that's a different conversation. Added to Justin's swing and defensive miseries, the lefty shift is compounding his problemos. Dooooooo consider strongly, gentlemen, the demotion of Justin to that line of privilege shared by Seager, Saunders, Carp and etc. Time for him to battle for PT like ever'body else.
If I'm Mike Carp, I'm setting out to make myself the best bunter in baseball. What's 100 bunts a day? Pete Rose woulda taken 500. My teammates rag me about it, I fire back, "They ain't pulling that slop on me. They're gonna play me honest, and then it's me against the pitcher."
Michael Saunders, he's a great bunter, the best tall bunter you'll ever see, and willing to bunt great. The variation of the shift they use on him, with the 3B playing the bunt (!) is both (a) hilarious and (b) implausible, long-term. If he keeps his ki going up the middle, he prob'ly don' have to sweat the shift.
John Jaso, no idea.
But one thing's clear. The shift is MLB's new version of the 6-, 7-man secondary. It's evolving before our eyes, especially before our eyes as Mariner fans.
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BABVA,
Dr D