Hultzen Scouting Report at Fangraphs
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Mike Newman seems to be Fangraphs' feature tools scout. He's got a comprehensive report on Danny Hultzen today, and a video containing dozens of Hultzen pitches from the Chattanooga game that Newman scouted. Great job Mike.
On to the kibitzing!
His success has left me wondering if as a child, Danny Hultzen was the type to constantly ask his parents “are we there yet?” on long road trips. If so, then the left-hander is probably busy texting “Is it time yet?” to Mariners higher-ups as his combination of stuff and performance is Seattle ready.
Hultzen started the year with a moderately disappointing loss, 5 runs allowed, and has since thrown 12 consecutive lockdowns - five runs in 12 games. This shutout-every-single-time shtick has long ago laid waste to any pretense that he needs the AA development time. I mean, what are you going to say? He's thrown 12 shutouts in a row. Maybe if he throws 16.
The good news for Mariners fans: the administration sincerely believes that Hultzen is going to be healthy and starring in the year 2018. Imagine sitting down to lunch with Zduriencik and hearing, "Oh, sure, Hultzen will be fine for 15 years. You don't worry a lot about mileage with Danny." Okay, great. Seriously, am glad to hear that.
My question would be: that crossfire motion is very effective, but also is unnatural. Sid Fernandez used one, but then El Sid only hit 200 IP three times in his career. He totaled 7 seasons with 25 or more starts. Are we sure that a cross-stepper is going to be a workhorse? Just asking: when was the last LHP who stepped 12-18" across to 1B, and who was durable?
We've said before that the M's stand to gain $3M, maybe $4M, one time, by sidestepping the Super Two arbitration in 2015. That seems like niggling, but all 30 MLB teams do it. ::shrug::
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his stuff was down from my first look at him on a Friday night against Georgia Tech in 2011 while playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In that game, Hultzen worked full innings in the mid-90′s mixing in a mid-80′s slider and low-to-mid 80′s changeup with great success. In Chattanooga, I had the opportunity to watch a more toned down, workmanlike Hultzen who presented as a much different pitcher now than he did just a year ago. Gone were the mid-90′s readings on the radar gun and slider. Present was a low-90′s fastball and upper 70′s curveball which allowed Hultzen to pitch at three distinct speeds.
Hultzen's motion right now is probably as relaxed as any pitcher's I've ever seen. John Halama used to blow bubbles during his backstroke. Jamie Moyer has the balance of a ballerina, all the way through his followthrough. Greg Maddux looked like he could fall asleep and keep pitching. Hultzen's relaxation is fully the equal of any of them.
We're talking about a relaxation that keeps the eyes softly on target, and the game slowed down, right through that 20-revolutions-per-second acceleration and through the pitch hitting the catcher's mitt. Sloooowwwww, slow, slow. Hultzen's outside his body observing the action.
In aikido they call this "keeping one point" - that at the moment of maximum chaos and confusion is occurring (a punch being thrown, a pitcher's shoulders rotating at 20 revs per second, you flipping somebody over your head) your mind is still unhurried.
This, combined with the new change curve, begins to remind of the young Barry Zito. Obviously this kind of mechanic lends itself to truly pinpoint control, Moyer-type control.
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Even so, Hultzen navigated in-and-out of tight spots with the ease of a veteran many years his senior and presented as in complete control of the game on a day when his best stuff was not present.
The anti-Noesi. You don't throw 12 consecutive shutouts* without being effective when --- > the game is not fun. Everybody can play when it's 75 degrees out and you're up by four runs. The "gamers" have a nasty little "I'm gonna hurt you now" attitude to them when things go wrong.
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At 90-92 MPH, touching 93, Hultzen’s fastball plays higher in game action as he’s still the best pitcher I’ve seen at hiding the baseball prior to the pitch. Instead of batters picking up the ball “in the window” just before the typical pitcher releases the ball, Hultzen’s pitches appear as if they are being shot out of his shoulder from behind home plate. This gives opposing hitters fits and alters their timing mechanism allowing 92 MPH to appear as if it’s 95 out of the hand.
Don't know whether I'd use the same "shot out of his shoulder" description or not, but the spirit is clear.
Newman has recorded dozens of pitches for us. Take a look at them, slow motion or not, and tell me how early you can pick up the type of pitch it is.
Hultzen's featherlight tempo remains precisely the same each pitch, he does cross-step in Sid Fernandez, George Sherrill style, and the ball might as well be "materializing" in front of the mound. It is a devastating problem for the hitter if he has no cues from the pitcher's motion; he just doesn't have the time to make a decision if the pitcher cuts 0.1 seconds off the reaction time.
Which is why Sid Fernandez, and George Sherrill for that matter, fanned 10+ men per game with 89 MPH fastballs and two pitches. The young Barry Zito, the 23-5 Zito, was the same. 90 MPH fastball, 72 change curve, and they just couldn't see the pitches out of his hand. They never did hit Zito, not until his arm frazzed out.
Based on the video, Hultzen does appear to have El Sid, Zito level deception. In the following five shots, notice the landing spot of Hultzen's foot, the quietness of his head, and his ability to "keep one point," remaining mentally unhurried and "present" despite the explosion of his own sports movement. You can see that better in the video, of course.
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