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Cory Schwartz won this year's mixed Tout Wars with a record points total.  He's won multiple championships in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and is currently vice president at the stats department of MLB Advanced Media.  So he's the state of the art.

It's interesting to see that the state of the art in roto is precisely where Dr. D left it four or five years ago, and where Ron Shandler left it twenty years ago.  (In the Hardball Times article, Schwartz is taking the Yoo-Hoo shower made famous by Shandler in a galaxy far, far away.)  It's possible that there are no fundamental gains to be made in macro baseball roster strategy.  Hitters are what they are, and pitchers are what they are.

A few excerpts from Estimable Schwartz' post-game interview:

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I prioritize offense first, bullpen second and starting pitching last in all leagues, with the exact distribution of dollars and draft picks determined by the league format. In a 15-team mixed league like Tout Wars I usually maintain a relatively typical 70/30 split during auctions, but the distribution of that 30 is somewhat atypical compared to other clubs. My split at Tout Wars this year was 71/29, with the $79 I spent on pitching only a dollar less than the league average...

John Benson, one of the pioneers of using analytics in fantasy baseball, taught me that "strength loves certainty, but weakness loves risk." As a result, I try to look for reasonably predictable offensive picks, with balanced category value and some upside, while I spend more aggressively and take on more risk in my starting pitching.

This aspect of Game Theory will be as true in two years as it is now.  It will be as true in 100 years.  In backgammon, if you're winning, you don't want a bunch of loose blots.  Time is on your side.  You want a conservative game, to let the dice and the clock do your work for you.  In a baseball game, if you're up 5-2 in the sixth, you don't want a sudden wild change in the weather.  The loser wants things muddied up.

In roster terms:  John Hart was inherently correct with the 1990's Indians.  All things being equal, you'd like to have eight star hitters and you'd like a fungible pitching staff that you can swap in and out as you go along.  Pitching isn't reliable, so it's objectively true that you should pile your resources into hitting.

Other things being equal.  If Jered Weaver wants to sign for $15M per, you do that.  There are many Golden Principles that intersect with with another.  But in general, trading Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero, trading Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak, drafting Dustin Ackley and Mike Zunino ... that's the way to go.  In Milwaukee, Jay-Z went with Braun and Fielder and Weeks.  We've got a guy here who visibly executes Game Theory.

Curse his luck at the way his high-stakes kids have turned out so far.  But if and when the M's splash $180M on a free agent, it will be for a thumper.  Good to have Jack in the captain's chair, ain't it?

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The 2013-2016 Mariners are positioned absolutely perfectly from a Shandler standpoint.  They've got one Aircraft Carrier starting pitcher, as reliable as it gets, and the rest of their rotation they can mix-and-match over the coming years.  There is a huge implication here.  Don't give Jason Vargas too much money, dude.

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What do you think are some of the most common misconceptions about team building/player evaluation that lead to draft day mistakes? 

Overspending on any one player is always a risk, particularly a starting pitcher, because it limits flexibility during the auction and leaves too big a hole in a team's production if the that player is injured or underproduces. Of the top 10 most expensive hitters purchased in Tout Wars this year, only Miguel Cabrera ($41) and Ryan Braun ($40) came close to earning full value, while Carlos Gonzalez ($40), Robinson Cano ($39) and Hanley Ramirez ($39) produced solid seasons but none provided full value. However, Albert Pujols ($43), Matt Kemp ($40), Justin Upton ($40), Adrian Gonzalez ($40) and Joey Votto ($39) all incurred considerable losses on their owners. 

Fangraphs authors would misintepret Schwartz as saying "don't buy Stars."  But Schwartz would have been the first one to buy any of those players at a $5 discount -- the equivalent of giving Fielder $170M in real life rather than $200M.  He bought Kinsler for $31 and Hosmer for $26, that being out of a $260 budget.

All roto champs buy Stars; Schwartz is talking about the tendency to OVERpay for these Stars (and scrubs) out of infatuation with S&S that has gotten out of hand.

"Leaving a hole if a player underproduces" is the key idea.  The core concept in a $260 draft is to get OVERproduction out of the Scrubs, to get $15 value for $5.  That can best be done by locking in a few $30 MVP candidates and getting as many $5 draws at the deck as possible.

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The 2013-16 Mariners have many draws at the Kyle Seager deck - so many draws that it's impossible to count all of them.  The problem comes when Owner X is spotting Owner Y his three Stars -- when Taro gets to spend $260 and G-Money only gets to spend $180.  It's tough to beat Taro on even terms; spot him three Miguel Cabreras and you might as well go watch soccer.

Zduriencik has talked about The Straw that Stirs the Drink.  Last year he wanted that to be Fielder.  This year he's making noises again, both on the trade front and the FA front.

Slam one Josh Hamilton, or Giancarlo Stanton, and the 2013-16 Mariners are a classic Tout Wars roster.  Complete with Pryor-Wilhelmsen bullpen and all the trimmings.  Like Geoffy says, though, there are two big holes right where the $31 hitters go.

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