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Giants Strike a Blow for Dumpster Diving

Three Russell Branyans in one offseason? I could go for that

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Get You One, supposedly a rummy-type card game that Puggy Pearson cut his teeth on.  It was a game in which each player maneuvered for position, then had to give his opponent Last Chance to draw and play out whatever points he could.  "Get You One" (from the draw deck).

The 2012 Giants were put together ... using a model the 2013 M's might want to snip?  Well, let's see:

  • The Giants' pitching had a teamwide 95 OPS+
  • The Giants' hitting had a teamwide 107 OPS+
  • The hitting was based on a 170 OPS+ from Posey, three Russ Branyan scrubs, and a long slew of 85-95 OPS+ from internal guys

The Giants did get two pretty decent internal contributions from Belt (124 OPS+) and Sandoval (124 OPS+).  This would be like the Mariners getting that from Seager, Saunders and/or Jaso - oh, wait.  The Mariners did get that much. 

How about the slew of 85-95 OPS+ performances?  Casper Wells, Mike Carp, Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, all those guys are already giving near-100 OPS+ performances.  Huge black holes are no longer the M's problem.

In order to emulate the 2012 Giants -- if that's what you wanted to do -- you'd need two things:

  • You'd need Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or somebody to hit like Buster Posey did.
  • You'd need three super-cheap Russ Branyan scrubs who cashed in like Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, and Marco Scutaro did.

Offhand, I can think of one cheap Scrub that the Mariners ever brought in who gave them a Melky Cabrera 2012 performance.  That being Russell Branyan, who Jack Zduriencik advance-scouted from Milwaukee.  There are probably one or two that I'm forgetting.

If you want to understand the Giants' 2012 miracle, here is the guts of it:

  • Angel Pagan came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $5M, and gave the Giants 4.8 WAR.
  • Melky Cabrera came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $6M, roided up, and gave the Giants 4.6 WAR in 70% of a season before getting suspended.  (That's effectively 6 WAR, with the jobshare partner.)
  • Marco Scutaro came in midseason, hit .362, and gave them 2 WAR in about the last third of the season.

That, and Posey's 170 OPS+, was the big offense that made up for the 95 ERA+.  It's kind of like that soup the kid made in Ratatouille.  Even he wouldn't have been able to make it the next night.

I'm not trying to be contrary.  That's my analysis, for whatever it is or isn't worth.  If you want to bet your next offseason on your ability to come up with three Russell Branyans simultaneously, Jack, it's your funeral.

The Giants took the 2011-12 winter off, closed their eyes, and hoped against hope.  It worked out.  Good on them, but I'm not modelling my own offseason plan on that.

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=== The Hidden Value of Scrubs:  Get You One ===

One of the main reasons that roto sharks use Stars & Scrubs:  the more you cram into the top 5 slots, the more $1M players you have who can overperform their contracts.

You buy a $5M Angel Pagan and a $6M Melky Cabrera to draw a card.  Get You One!  You're paying for 1.0, 1.5 WAR but who knows.  They might get you 3 WAR or 4 WAR or.... for the Giants, their three Scrubs got them 5-6 WAR each in the second half.

The thing is that dynamic, talented young players also Get You One.  Mike Carp has the same chance of overperforming his salary that (say) a discounted Johnny Gomes would have.

Get it?  "Got it!"  Good.  -- a team without young talent takes a flier on Russell Branyan because that's its draw at the 3-WAR deck for 1-WAR money.  But the Seattle Mariners have a dozen 3-WAR draws as it stands.  You've got Smoak.  You've got Ackley.  You've got Montero.  You've got Carp.  You've got Wells.  You've got Liddi.  Hey, Eric Thames is a draw at the 3-WAR deck.  Nick Franklin is.  John Jaso is ... whoop, he already flipped and is a face card.  You get the idea.

Let's run the positions real quick:

  • 1B - Smoak, Carp - no point in importing cheap vets for a draw here
  • 2B - Ackley - no point.  (Also Seager, then Franklin are draws at 2B)
  • SS - Ryan - married to him; he WAS 2.7 WAR in 2011; Franklin behind him
  • 3B - Seager 3.6 WAR last year
  • C - Jaso 2.7 WAR in 70% of a year.  Montero is a draw we paid Pineda to pull
  • CF - Saunders 3.0 WAR last year if you consider fielding neutral

No way in the world you import vet scrubs at those positions.  You've got two positions left to work with.  And why opt voluntarily to pull Scrub draws in LF and RF when you've got the money to do better than that?  Is 'cause you like drawing cards?  You gotta spend your money someplace.

The Scrubs part of the roster strategy, for this particular team, is pounded into mincemeat already.  You know what to do.  Cheap young Scrubs are looking good at every infield spot including catcher, and at CF.  Two Yahtzee slots on the card, LF and RF, and Ichiro's salary miraculously and suddenly gone.

Earlier somebody axed, why not a handful of our best and brightest for Wil Myers, AND a big contract for Josh Hamilton or his ilk?  ... um ... what else exactly is there to do with this roster?!

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