Area 13: the Value of Trades
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The last couple of weeks, Dr. D has returned to an old favorite pastime. What did they call it ... dowsing ... no, lousing up ... no, BROWSING the net. Thass it. Surfing and stuff. D has been clicking on hyperlinks in the sidebars of websites. It's got to stop, or we're going to hemorrhage the rest of what little quality we'd been trying to retain.
One reason it will ruin us, is because we blow our legs off on land mines like Thirteen's Offseason Plan Post at Lookout Landing. It cost me like, two hours' worth of noodling up data on scrubs like Logan Morrison. Thirteen's plan is so well-thought-out that had it been signed by a Baseball Prospectus author, it would have been one of the events of the offseason... SSI does get one side benefit, the coming dozen or so freebie articles that it can slam off Thirteen's heavy lifting.
Another reason it's going to ruin us, is because we keep running into bizarre stuff. In this case, off-site responses that declare 13's fundamental flaw to be that .... he's using trades to make the team better. Actually trades move talent around; free agency purchases are what add talent. Eureka! See how simple baseball can be? :- )
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=== The Value of Trades ===
Thirteen's hyper-intelligent plan does pivot around the fulcrum of Stars & Scrubs trades -- in this case
Trade SP James Paxton, SS Nick Franklin, SP Blake Beavan, OF Trayvon Robinson and SP Victor Sanchez to Kansas City for LF Alex Gordon and SS Christian Colon.
Trade CF Franklin Gutierrez, RP Shawn Kelley, OF Phillips Castillo and 3B Alex Liddi to Miami for OF Logan Morrison, IF Donovan Solano, and OF Jake Smolinski.
In the comments, amigos follow on with trades like these:
1. Trade James Paxton, Brad Miller, and Brandon Maurer for Wil Myers.
2. Trade Franklin Gutierrez, Blake Beaven, and Carlos Triunfel for Logan Morrison.
3. Trade Kyle Seager, Victor Sanchez, Stephen Romero, and Erasmo Ramirez for Brett Lawrie.
Studying 13's plan, Dr. D braced himself for a blizzard of protests a la "Why do homers always want to trade our castoffs for other teams' jewels" but 13 had cut that off at the pass, by giving KC about $1.50 on the dollar for Alex Gordon. He still ran into some of it, but it was manageable.
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The Authorities, seeing 13's plan, sniffed "Don't be naive. Trades just move talent around. Free agency adds talent."
:: blinks ::
1. 13's plan had a big free agent aquisition.
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2. By the anti-trade logic, none of the 80 trades last winter had any reason to exist? None of the GM's thought that trades could lead to a better W/L record?
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3. Jack Zduriencik has stated that his goal is to add a big bat, either in trade or in free agency. If the "Trades don't add talent" logic be sound, Jack Zduriencik hasn't gotten the memo. (Zduriencik traded for John Jaso, Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi last winter.) Billy Beane hasn't (just last winter he traded for Seth Smith, Josh Reddick, Tom Milone, and 10 other players).
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4. Deals tend to take a [50c + 50c + 50c for $1.00] structure. Even if this "moves talent around" on the first level of perception ... it adds talent through its opening up of a portal at the bottom of the 25-man roster (for the team getting the Star) or by freeing up money (for the team getting the Scrubs).
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5. If you open Hole A to fill Hole B (Kyle Seager + ? for Giancarlo Stanton), it could be that you like the minor leaguer (Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi, Stefen Romero) who will fill Hole A.
This isn't an esoteric idea. John McGraw, a hundred years ago, called it "dealing from strength to fix a weakness."
As 13 aptly put it in the comments:
Teams don’t create holes to fill holes? Yeah, I guess the Mariners wouldn’t ship off their #2 starting pitcher in order to fill their hole at catcher, leaving a spot for a replacement level guy like Blake Beavan in their rotation. Wait, they did? Well, the Royals wouldn’t move their 4 WAR left fielder for a rotation arm, leaving a bad player like Jeff Francoeur with a job. Wait, they did? Those moves just happened last offseason? Crazy!
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6. Any time you trade [Player A, $0.75 Consensus Value], for [Player B, $0.75 Consensus Value], it gives you a chance to exploit your own vision of what Players A and B are worth. Jason Vargas was worth $0.25 when Jack Zduriencik thought he was worth $0.50. Every trade is a chance to assess a player better than other people have done. This isn't just theory. It's consistently how roto championships are won. You think Hisashi Iwakuma is mediocre and I think he's good. On Endy Chavez, it's vice-versa. Let's trade.
Billy Beane traded for Seth Smith last winter, under this premise. Jed Hoyer traded for Chris Volstad with the same "let's see who assesses him better" idea.
We both get one extra chance to be smart. That's what makes a ballgame! If I were a real GM, I would make as many trades as politically feasible, because if I am indeed 10% smarter than you, my chances to prove that are better in 30 trades than in 2 trades.
7. - 100. etc.
101. Dr. D doesn't know why he took the time to refute this objection to 13's plan. ... oh yeah. Because the 2013-15 Mariners simply must start trading quantity for quality.
Drive home safely,
Jeff
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