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xFIP is still generally going to predict ERA better than ERA predicts itself.  We're left to search for cases in which a weird ERA has a cause other than luck.  Felix Hernandez' high ERA's, early on, were an example.
Where you're left in the lurch is when you're a sabertista who is angered at the idea that there might be a reason that a given pitcher's ERA doesn't match his xFIP.
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I do agree that the gigantic 4.89-4.03 difference was partially affected by circumstance.  A lot of people questioned the Tiger defense.  And his strand rate is indeed a couple of ticks worse than he deserves, so the bullpen undoubtedly cost him a little.
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Bonderman could definitely run a "regression to the mean" ERA-xFIP that left him with a 2+ ERA.  LOL.  ... doesn't change the FACT that his pitchability used to be an eyesore.