Add new comment

Thank you Jeff, nice article, good comments. And it may be super pertinent to the Mariner’s, as I think how to incorporate statistics and quantitative analysis in general is something Jack Zduriencik has been wrestling with. Certainly Mr. Z is not treating statistical info the same as when he arrived. Belangio is gone, Tango is distanced, and Jeff Kingston is in. Kingston has a degree in Economics and supposedly has a close working relationship with Z. Some interpret these moves to mean that Jack has abandoned statistical analysis for what he is comfortable with, scouting. Perhaps. But perhaps our GM hasn’t wavered in his belief in the importance of effective quantitative analysis, but, rather, has a new appreciation for the complexity of it (at the GM level). If so, I wish Jack’s success in integrating quantitative analysis into the process. It may be the difference between the Mariner’s being a contender versus being a PERENNIAL contender. Baseball is a big and broad business now. More size and diversity => more need for effective quant.s.
Are the teams that have recognized ‘this is not your father’s baseball’ enjoying a huge edge now? Look at Tampa Bay. How is it that they are so effective in converting $s into wins? Their scouting is often mentioned as a reason, but both the owner and the GM are ‘numbers’ people from Wall Street. Perhaps the Rays are an example of a successful marriage between quantitative and qualitative analysis. It has been said that the creative companies Disney and Apple would not have enjoyed their degree of success without the tight working relationship between the CEO and a sharp CFO? Has Mr. Zduriencik found his CFO equivalent in Jeff Kingston? Questions!
If Mr. Kingston is tasked with putting numbers to Zduriencik’s investment options, he has a very interesting and very challenging job. The asset evaluations and investment decisions in baseball seem incredibly diverse and complicated.
For example, how do you decide whether or not to invest in a new Dominican Academy? Do you factor in the new CBA rule changes and the implied enhanced value of recruiting? Do you factor in projected rising revenues (cable deals etc.) for the Mariners and MLB as a whole? Another example; when deciding what the top price to pay for a Michael Morse type, do you just base it on projected wins added or do you factor in ‘Star Power’, that is, the ability to fill seats and pump ratings. What if you have to decide between investing in example 1 (the Dominican Academy) or example 2 (Michael Morse); apples or oranges? Which do you choose?
This is where I feel a good numbers man in the organization can earn their money. If they can properly describe the complexity of the market and thus make accurate valuations, the team will spend its revenue much more effectively. This hopefully leads to more wins and thus increased revenue, which then can be used to ‘purchase’ further wins. Simpler said than done!
One final slightly related comment. I sure would like to see ownership consider moving to some form of a 5-year budgeting plan in view of the projected sharp revenue increase from the impending cable deal. Now is the time to be making more investments in the future like the Dominican Academy.