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I knew my post would only appeal to a narrow subset of SSI readers, but I put it out there anyway. I'm also glad that Cool Papa Bell and SABR Matt don't see it as a long term problem. Diversity of opinion makes for more interesting debate.
Your summary was spot on, but I think you knew that ;)
Now to comment on your prescription. Trained as a scientist, I don't think it is the 'complexity' of the problem that defeats quantitative modeling and prediction, it is the nearly complete lack of control of the critical variables in the problem. The lack of control is so much we aren't even sure which variables are critical. It short, we never do baseball experiments with controls groups, so we don't get to test and refine our models. Do you really need sluggers to complement on-base guys. Would fielding nine Luis Castillo's break the correlation between runs scored and on-base percentage? Would surrounding Luis Castillo with Luis Castillos negatively or positively effect his performance. It would be an easy and insightful experiment, but it will never happen. As my wife said when our first daughter was born, "Baby, not experiment."
In closing, sabermetrics is natural history, not science. I can count how many chickadees eat from my backyard bird feeder and plot the year-by-year trend, but I won't be able to determine if the trend is from global warming or my neighbors installing the new and improved Bird-a-Lux100 and subtly changing the migratory path of chickadees by one backyard.